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The current CDC "best estimate" is ~0.4%, assuming an R0 of 2.5, with estimates of ~0.2% if the R0 is actual ~2 in the US and ~1% if the R0 is actually 3.


Pretty sure that 0.4% is "among people who develop symptoms" and 35% of infections are asymptomatic. So 0.4% of 65% of infections, or ~0.26% of infections.

[0]: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...


Thanks for the correction; everyone else, ignore what I wrote one post up.

(It's a shame HN doesn't support strike-through; that is my preferred way to retract a post without just deleting it in shame.)


No problem. This stuff is all very nuanced and rapidly changing. It's hard not to make a mistake.




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