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> Latest estimates are 0.5-1 percent fatality rate

I read just a couple of days ago that the IFR (infection fatality rate) is only ~0.25%-0.3%? Still ~four times higher than that of the flu, but not ten times greater.



yes, IFR was trending toward 0.2-0.3% even in march, and with time it's only become more likely that those are the bounds. flu averages around 0.1% IFR, so likely 2-3X as deadly.


The current CDC "best estimate" is ~0.4%, assuming an R0 of 2.5, with estimates of ~0.2% if the R0 is actual ~2 in the US and ~1% if the R0 is actually 3.


Pretty sure that 0.4% is "among people who develop symptoms" and 35% of infections are asymptomatic. So 0.4% of 65% of infections, or ~0.26% of infections.

[0]: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...


Thanks for the correction; everyone else, ignore what I wrote one post up.

(It's a shame HN doesn't support strike-through; that is my preferred way to retract a post without just deleting it in shame.)


No problem. This stuff is all very nuanced and rapidly changing. It's hard not to make a mistake.




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