I can believe that their technology works. I've been hearing about this sort of stuff for ten years before I first heard of Theranos. Search for "lab on a chip." There are grad students working on this sort of stuff at every major research university.
However, the $9 billion valuation feels bubblish. Consider that Quest and Labcorp are both $10 billion companies, and Theranos is talking about driving down the price of testing. They need a lot of elasticity in this market to make the numbers work out.
Blood testing is ideally (and realistically) something EVERYONE should have access to, and should probably be done yearly. The potential market is anyone who receives health care.
And for any non-Americans around here, a [reasonably] complete blood panel in the US will carry a ~$1000 price tag, which insurance may or may not cover.
A complete blood profile in uk from a private clinic (completely non NHS) is £95.00 + say £160.00 for hormone screening. So yea, that still doesn't make sense.
It's hard to put a number on it. I can get the basic screen at a doctor in the US for $200.
Throw in some more specific stuff, it goes up to $1500 or so. I have a medical condition that requires a blood test every 4 months in that price range. Thankfully insurance covers it, but checking one box on the list of things to test increases the price 800% for reasons that I don't understand.
Maybe the idea is much higher profit margins than labcorp + potential for larger demand(painless blood tests,fast results, and general trends in medicine) + potential overseas ,since it's basically a tech company, not a services company.
But with lab-on-chip having moore's law like economics, won't competition come sooner or later, and crush the market?
However, the $9 billion valuation feels bubblish. Consider that Quest and Labcorp are both $10 billion companies, and Theranos is talking about driving down the price of testing. They need a lot of elasticity in this market to make the numbers work out.