I think the development of programming literacy will mirror the development of literacy.
Literacy itself used to be a niche skill, learned by a select few who made an earning from it (scribes, criers), while the majority of craftsman got along just fine without it. Then the printing press came along, and it brought a proliferation of readable material, and literacy became useful. Not essential, but useful. People could distribute political literature, or send messages cheaply. Literacy bloomed. And as literacy increased, and became expected, it became essential.
We're at the beginning stage of that now. Somewhere around (probably before) the printing press. Programming literacy is becoming useful, but not yet essential.
Literacy itself used to be a niche skill, learned by a select few who made an earning from it (scribes, criers), while the majority of craftsman got along just fine without it. Then the printing press came along, and it brought a proliferation of readable material, and literacy became useful. Not essential, but useful. People could distribute political literature, or send messages cheaply. Literacy bloomed. And as literacy increased, and became expected, it became essential.
We're at the beginning stage of that now. Somewhere around (probably before) the printing press. Programming literacy is becoming useful, but not yet essential.