I honestly don't know enough about the Android business to comment.
> AdSense has nothing to do with search
I think you're focusing far too much on the technology and not nearly enough on the power that comes with being king of search. What if Amazon or Facebook manage to come up with a truly compelling business offering that competes with the open internet (the former by controlling logistical infrastructure, the latter by controlling social infrastructure, and both by reducing payment friction)? A shift would happen where the purchase point moves from the "open internet" (which is really Google's walled garden) to Amazon/Facebook territory. Suddenly AdSense becomes less attractive than a Amazon/Facebook affiliate alternative and webmasters everywhere switch to the option that pays better.
I sincerely hope this doesn't happen, but I don't think it's particularly far-fetched.
I honestly don't know enough about the Android business to comment.
> AdSense has nothing to do with search
I think you're focusing far too much on the technology and not nearly enough on the power that comes with being king of search. What if Amazon or Facebook manage to come up with a truly compelling business offering that competes with the open internet (the former by controlling logistical infrastructure, the latter by controlling social infrastructure, and both by reducing payment friction)? A shift would happen where the purchase point moves from the "open internet" (which is really Google's walled garden) to Amazon/Facebook territory. Suddenly AdSense becomes less attractive than a Amazon/Facebook affiliate alternative and webmasters everywhere switch to the option that pays better.
I sincerely hope this doesn't happen, but I don't think it's particularly far-fetched.