That's not a scary question. One could simultaneously believe that an employee's performance was coincidence, but still give that employee a bonus (why not reward luck, after all?).
You don't reward luck because the negative effects of individual bonuses on the entire workforce cause more harm.
You recognize the truth: that your whole team is responsible for working together to solve the problems of the company, which are necessarily complex and large (otherwise, you'd only need one person) and individual salaries are based on their baseline skills and abilities in that context.
Visible public reward of individuals for work that's perceived (and truly required) to be a team effort is visibly detrimental.
