Real interest rates are negative and credit is tight. Credit has been tight for some time, but there is some debate as to when the real interest rate went below zero. These two factors will cause the US economy to (eventually) shrink because ~65% of its component parts reflect economic activities based on consumption. The economy can not expand because dollars that have historically gone into consumption are being invested into Treasuries. This has the effect of keeping yields on treasury notes down, which causes real interest rates to go below zero. A negative real interest rate environment implies investors are willing to take a small loss if it means they can avoid bigger losses on other investments.