You raise interesting points, but you make many, many assumptions. It's totally possible that they may all come true, but there is a lot of speculation in your analysis.
Also, you assume that BTCUSD price will rise as bitcoin gains adoption (that is the basis of your analysis). But there is no correlation between price and adoption.
It's not hard to imagine a world where 1 BTC is stable at ~$10K for example. Denominations would be in milli- and micro-BTC, and BTCUSD price would be an afterthought.
I don't think I make all that many assumptions. I am seeing what would happen if we imagined it is adopted as "the" Internet currency. On the Internet, especially in a situation like this where it takes 10-100 minutes to move away from holding bitcoin, it is quite difficult to play "second fiddle" to another curency. So we should look primarily at what happens if it becomes "the" Internet currency, and I think $7 trillion is a good cap to look at that under.
If you see my other comment to someone on the differences between Gold and bitcoin (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7676732) you will see that it is incredibly easy to move away from and has no lock-in.
So we have to look at the macro process as BTC gains adoption as a currency, and we have to look at what would happen if it succeeded.
Bear in mind that unlike Gold, which has a poorer cousin in silver, every cousin of BTC has the exact same technical properties.
The only difference is the level of usage and acceptance. And that is dictated by what is the de facto crypto currency, and the amount of currency that is needed. If people tire of bitcoins, they can move away from them overnight.
Also, you assume that BTCUSD price will rise as bitcoin gains adoption (that is the basis of your analysis). But there is no correlation between price and adoption.
It's not hard to imagine a world where 1 BTC is stable at ~$10K for example. Denominations would be in milli- and micro-BTC, and BTCUSD price would be an afterthought.