This article is so misleading, starting with the title.
"Cops find five Indian Ocean practice Runways..." seems to suggest these runways were used for practice by Shah. This article says nothing more than these were runway options (out of probably thousands) that were available for simulation. There is no useful information from this piece at all, and it is leading to completely unwarranted speculation, especially by folks who have no knowledge of flying and simulators.
It's not even like there is anyting suspicious about having a bunch of runways close to his regular routes on his simulator to practice on.
I'd almost expect something like this from a pilot that takes his trade seriously. After all, where do you have to land in case of emergency, if not on some runway near your regular routes.
Pilot who flies in the area of the Indian Ocean has Indian Ocean airports on his practice setup. Obviously, a smoking gun. Also good that the defense minister denied the plane landed at Diego Garcia, because who in the world would notice it sitting there for a week?
Maybe there's something lost in translation but I guess the story was leaked to journalists because the runways were specially designated i.e. bookmarked or set-up for regular practice with waypoints similar to what investigators have found.
I'm not a pilot, but I imagine if I were, I would want to try landing at airports I normally wouldn't. So in the simulator I would probably pick the world's toughest runways, the most scenic ones, runways on the other side of the world...
The Malaysians are being criticized but I don't think many countries would do that much better given the task in hand. Sure, the public relations and messaging should be better, but I'm sure there's a lot of stuff going on that we don't know about.
I don't believe that idea that other countries wouldn't do better.
They had the military radar data the night the plane went missing, indicating that the plane did not in fact crash near where the transponder shut down, but flew west for over an hour before disappearing off the radar in that direction.
Despite having this information available, they either ignored it or didn't think to ask for it or something, and as a result they wasted massive amounts of time and effort (theirs and that of other countries) searching the wrong ocean. For a week.
That military radar data is probably the most important information in the investigation that wasn't immediately known. Yet it didn't actually come to light until days later, and then when it did their immediate reaction was to deny that it was true! It took another couple of days before they finally settled down and admitted, yes, we tracked this plane flying completely out of the search area and far away from where we've been telling everyone it is. And we knew this for a couple of days, but we let everybody continue searching the wrong place anyway. In fact, we'll still let them keep searching for a couple more days before we refocus.
There is some serious WTF going on. I hope there is some massive coverup or conspiracy going on, because they're verging on criminally incompetent otherwise.
To give them the benefit of the doubt, when a plane's transponder shuts down over the ocean and isnt heard from again, it's very easy to leap to the obvious conclusion that it went down and focus on marshaling recovery resources, rather than thinking through how to test extremely low probability hypotheses like "the pilot turned off the electronics and flew in a completely different direction."
That's true, and that might account for a day, perhaps two, before discovering the military radar data. But they didn't start searching west until four days after the disappearance, and didn't stop searching east until even later. Even crazier, they started searching west while denying reports about the military radar data. That military radar information leaked to the public three days after the plane disappeared but was denied until a couple of days later. Crazier still, Wikipedia says:
> According to the Vietnamese Deputy Minister of Transport, Pham Quy Tieu, "We informed Malaysia on the day we lost contact with the flight that we noticed the flight turned back west but Malaysia did not respond."
Malaysia had all the info they needed to know that the plane had not crashed into the Gulf of Thailand almost immediately. Ideally they would have acted on it right away. Realistically, I can understand a day or two of delay as they look into the obvious things first and try to confirm the other data. But to wait so long and ignore so much is well beyond what ought to have happened.
Edit: especially in the 9/11-paranoid US and other similarly fearful countries, the plane would have been noticed on military radar in real time and would have been intercepted right away, and this whole question of who knew what when and how long it's reasonable to search in the wrong place would have been avoided because the fighter pilots would have watched the thing sail off with their own eyes.
Maybe the military of several countries are not sharing their data in a timely manner because it's embarrassing for them to reveal that they were sleeping on the job, there is no actual intercept plan, and that the millions/billions spent on air defense is a complete waste of money.
"Has there been a military cover-up over missing jet? Thai air force says its radar spotted MH370 heading to Strait of Malacca minutes after it vanished (but didn't say anything)... MH370 spotted at 1.28am, eight minutes after it stopped communicating. Turned towards Butterworth, a Malaysian city along the Strait of Malacca... Thai air force did not report contact because 'it did not look like a threat'"
If I am not mistaken, the 9/11 commission report revealed that civilian and military radar systems and processes were not linked, thereby resulting in confusion as to what was happening. Although lessons should have been learnt, I suspect this problem still exists in many countries, and this is what we are witnessing right now.
That certainly seems extremely likely to me. Asleep at the switch, subsequently partially at fault for the disappearance of a couple hundred people, and a reluctance to come forward will be the expected result....
Personally I think there's a decent possibility that whoever was manning the radars that night was in on it somehow. It's a crazy idea and it's not too likely, but no other possibility seems particularly likely either. It does neatly explain how the military "ignored" an unauthorized intrusion into their airspace as well as why they "didn't notice it" for some days afterwards.
I'm not too serious about this, yet at the same time it seems like the least improbable idea.
If it turned and were to follow established corridors, I can't imagine neighboring militaries would be particularly concerned. Even if they were paying attention to the transponders themselves, they might figure it was some sort of technical trouble--as long as the aircraft stays in the corridor, who cares? Some idiot flying along an established route without his transponder is a problem for ATC, not air defense, and that seems to be the best explanation for #1 and #3, probably even #2. Sure, Vietnam noticed and tried to inform Malaysia, but countries upstream from the route might not have cared (they probably wouldn't have seen it turn, either).
But you're right, Malaysia hasn't done a stellar job organizing the search and recovery (understatement of the year aware goes to...). The real problem, though, is that no one has any idea what's going on.
I admit. There's something fantastical to consider about a plane, under control of a rogue pilot (or pilots), clandestinely flying to a location for possible future use in an elaborate terror plot. The only caveat is that the logistics of such a thing would require so much preliminary planning in terms of fueling, storing/hiding the plane somewhere, or outright repainting it, that it very nearly requires the resources of a state actor or another determined (and secretive) foe. And who would be the target? The simplest solution, then, is to speculate that there was some sort of emergency on board, the pilots became confused (or incapacitated and the plane was operating on autopilot), and the aircraft is now at the bottom of the sea.
Returning to the article: It's easy to blame countries near the Indian Ocean of being highly secretive about their capabilities. I'm sure they are, of course, (and certainly need to be) but there's something about the elaborate hijacking plot that seems amazingly complicated and difficult to pull off. Moreover, as time wears on, the probability of being discovered increases, and I'm sure other states (Israel) might be keeping an eye on potential suspects (Iran) for such activity anyway, simply out of paranoia. Further, how easy is it to disappear a plane and keep it hidden for weeks, months, or indefinitely? One instance [1] comes to mind, but with 239 people on board...? That's to say nothing about finding a runway large enough to land such a beast that is also not well monitored.
I'll say this: It'd make great fiction, certainly, but I think the crux of the matter is something we don't do well as humans. We don't like to admit that we don't know the answer. And this could become the mystery of the century if it's never found. However, I'm inclined to believe it was an emergency of some sort (at least I hope). But, the only thing that doesn't mesh well with that theory is the engine monitoring data, but we might very well discover there was a valid reason for that (incapacitated pilots?).
For the sake of the families, I hope something is discovered soon--if only for closure. I can't even begin to imagine the pain they're feeling not knowing what became of their loved ones.
The effects of hypoxia are profound on human performance -- it's not as simple as being unconscious and incapacitated, it can be irrational and incoherent.
As an example, listen to the incoherency of this professional pilot suffering effects of hypoxia at 32,000 feet (flying a LearJet 25) -- he sounds falling over drunk, complaining about flight control problems, oblivious to the profound effects of hypoxia that he and his copilot are experiencing:
Then listen to him after being coached to descend to 11,000 feet when everything really is "A-OK".
He sounds like a completely different person at 4:10.
The co-pilot who sounds young and spritely at 4:00 (who me? unconscious, nah, just a micro-nap) had this written about him: "the unconscious first officer's arm was moving violently and uncontrolled all the time kicking the controls and thus disengaging the autopilot"). [1]
While I find all the wild speculation fascinating, sadly I believe the highest probability explanation is still a fire or depressurization, resulting in a pilot acting incoherently.
Of course, all stones should still be turned over in the search, but there's been no evidence so far that changes the scenario above from being the highest probability in my assessment.
Hypoxia is another consideration that's worth looking at and would certainly explain the wild altitude changes. It's a shame that it's not being explored as closely as some of the other theories.
Particularly when you consider it was responsible (at least partially) for the downing of Helios flight 522 in 2005.
I would suggest you look at how an NTSB or EASA investigation is conducted and compare it to the pageant of incompetence displayed by everyone involved in the MH370 investigation and get back to us on that "couldn't do better" thought.
If this was deliberate, and that pilot is the one behind it, then he probably put some thought into what was saved on his home flight simulator also.
Anyone who vanishes a 777 for over a week probably put a little effort into details like that.
My sample is clearly biased, but a lot of people in my flying club fly for a living with airlines or the military, then come fly some more in a recreational capacity with the club.
Sure. At one time every doctor had a medical bag with scalpels, sutures, basic medications, etc. that they carried with them everywhere they went. I think it's still pretty common (though maybe not as common as it was in the days when doctors made house calls).
I'm a developer, but I don't go home and simulate programing. You seem to be answering a different question: is it common for professional pilots to fly recreationally?
The five airports are located in the Maldives, Diego Garcia, India and Sri Lanka.
News out today claims multiple eye-witnesses in the Maldives:
"Residents of the remote Maldives island of Kuda Huvadhoo in Dhaal Atoll have reported seeing a "low flying jumbo jet" on the morning of the disappearance of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.
They said that it was a white aircraft, with red stripes across it – which is what the Malaysia Airlines flights typically look like.
...
"I've never seen a jet flying so low over our island before. We've seen seaplanes, but I'm sure that this was not one of those. I could even make out the doors on the plane clearly," said an eyewitness.
"It's not just me either, several other residents have reported seeing the exact same thing. Some people got out of their houses to see what was causing the tremendous noise too."
All the stories seem to be quoting the same source, which seems a bit shaky.
"Satellite data suggests that the last “ping” was recieved from the flight somwhere close to the Maldives and the US naval base on Diego Garcia."
Where is this coming from? Nowhere have I seen anything to suggest there was a "ping" anywhere specific. We've only heard about ping data along non-specific arcs well away from the Maldives.
Note the comments in the above link, the authorities have only released the INMARSAT ARC corresponding to a single ping. They have not released the ARCs for all the pings which would indicate if the plane was flying West or not.
It may be that authorities are already investigating the Maldives and possible follow-on destinations, but do not want to publicly alert the pilot/hijackers that they are on their trail, so in public the focus has been on the northern corridor and Kazakhstan.
Why didn't they come forward before? Seems a little odd that they waited until after other evidence pointed to an island landing to claim they saw the plane.
Why would they think it was related? They're about 2,000 miles away from where the plane was originally thought to have crashed, and saw it hours after it supposedly crashed.
Imagine a plane goes missing in Hawaii and hours later you see an unusual plane over San Francisco. The news is talking about how the plane disappeared over Hawaii and crashed into the ocean around there and lots of planes and ships are combing the waters around Hawaii... are you really going to connect your unusual sighting with those events happening half an ocean away?
I didn't see anything in the news... Was KUL-PEK a normal route for this pilot? Makes a lot of sense to have and practice on runways in the area you take off or land into the most.
That would be like a programmer writing "Hello World" in C if landing commercial aircraft was as easy, inconsequential and irrelevant to the main part of their job as writing "Hello World", or if programmers worked in a highly-regulated regime where their lives were dependent on absolutely perfect execution of repetitive "Hello World"-type tasks. Or indeed, if piloting and programming were remotely comparable activities.
Stretching the analogy beyond it's elastic breaking point and devolving in to pedantry: Good job! I was in essence pointing out, being both a pilot and a programmer, that pilots and programmers have zero interest in doing the same procedure over and over again in their leisure time just for shits and giggles. I don't practice landing at Van Nuys airport on the simulator in a Citation because that's old hat. I practice landing on the simulator at a scenic airport in the Swiss alps, with 40 knot cross winds, low cloud layer, just at dawn because it is fun...
There are times when pedantry is called for, one of which is when people are insinuating there's anything remotely unusual about a pilot playing with some nearby airports on a home flight sim; whether you intended to contribute towards the excessive levels of FUD on here or not.
The Maldives are pretty darn scenic, the landing strip is a tiny island and a 777-rated pilot wouldn't have been flying there with MAS; some of his friends might have been. And even landing somewhere as run-of-the mill as Changi can be made less dull by doing it on the military runway in a storm - it's a lot easier on a sim when you don't have to explain your actions to ATC
And there are enough plane spotters amongst the aviation enthusiast community to suggest that the real aviation industry equivalent of reimplementing of "Hello World" has its fanbase :-)
There are essentially two simulators that the majority of pilots use. Microsoft FSX and Xplane. They both have pretty much all of the airports in the world installed by default. The extras you install are the actual scenery, but the airports are there without any manual installation.
Sadly, sim software has been getting less and less user friendly as it becomes more of a niche product. Flight sims used to be a major gaming category in the early years of computers, but now with the gaming market having become so ruthlessly competitive, sim developers have fewer casual customers.
Nowadays, most sim enthusiasts are semi-pro pilots and aerospace engineers. The biggest draw of sims is being able to fly aircraft that you normally couldn't, like the A-10 which is masterfully simulated down to its tiniest details by DCS in DCS Warthog.
If you assume the conspiracy involves the Air Traffic Control and fuel handling services at Male Airport, plus any tourists or Maldivians in the two population centres a few hundred metres away, then the theory of them sneaking a massive jet in and out of Male airport without anybody noticing becomes a distinct possibility.
Altneratively: it went to Diego Garcia, and the US military is in on it. No civilians or public air services required. It refueled and launched again from there.
Don't necessarily believe these are likely, it's just interesting to think about.
The speculation around this seems rather pointless. Obviously, at this time, the plane has neither crashed into anything or magically converted water into fuel, nor has it landed anywhere it could fly off from again.
So how about we find it first (stuck in some jungle as its guaranteed to be) and then let facts guide our wild speculations?
"Cops find five Indian Ocean practice Runways..." seems to suggest these runways were used for practice by Shah. This article says nothing more than these were runway options (out of probably thousands) that were available for simulation. There is no useful information from this piece at all, and it is leading to completely unwarranted speculation, especially by folks who have no knowledge of flying and simulators.