I remember how the conflict started in Slovenia. It was initiated by the Yugoslav federal army, which was Serb-dominated. To think of an analogous sequence of events in the U.S., you'd need the U.S. army dominated by one faction, e.g. Texas. Then say California decides to secede because they are tired of giving money to support red states. Federal army comes in (or actually is already in) and starts shooting at state-level national guard and police. That's roughly what Slovenia was like.

It's a huge stretch because the U.S. doesn't really have ethnic factions like YU used to. And its army is not really Texas-controlled, or even if it were nobody would care. :-)