I grew up in Yugoslavia. I was surprised by the wars (it started in Slovenia) because up to that point things were peaceful, and being a kid, didn't really have insight into ethnic tensions. But even to me it was clear that once war broke out in Slovenia and Croatia, it would most certainly happen in Bosnia as well, and that there it would be much, much worse.
The first two conflicts were mostly Serb vs. Croat. However, members of those ethnic groups in Bosnia tended to be more extremist, and there was the additional complication of there being a large Muslim minority involved in plenty of grudges dating back to Turkish occupation. It was pretty clearly a barrel of gunpowder just waiting to explode.
Having said that the Yugoslav conflicts really had very little to do with a surveillance state and an evil government. It was more a sectarian war with somewhat even sides. Yugoslavia was a lot better on the 'Orwellian government' scale than the rest of the Eastern bloc.
I just noticed these comments. I just wanted to point out that I wasn't trying to draw some sort of analogy between the U.S. and the former Yugoslavia. I thought that much was clear.
My point was that things can do rapidly downhill even in prosperous countries. That was the sole thesis of my comment.
And of course it was clear what would happen in Bosnia once the war started in Croatia (Slovenia was over so quickly). My emphasis was that none of this was expected back in 1984.
The first two conflicts were mostly Serb vs. Croat. However, members of those ethnic groups in Bosnia tended to be more extremist, and there was the additional complication of there being a large Muslim minority involved in plenty of grudges dating back to Turkish occupation. It was pretty clearly a barrel of gunpowder just waiting to explode.
Having said that the Yugoslav conflicts really had very little to do with a surveillance state and an evil government. It was more a sectarian war with somewhat even sides. Yugoslavia was a lot better on the 'Orwellian government' scale than the rest of the Eastern bloc.