It is indeed all my savings. But I was saving it anyway, so I won't be out in a doghouse if it vanishes. I guess I'm dumb, but at this stage in my life I'd rather have 9.89BTC than $11k.
My theory is, everyone's expecting it to crash. So therefore it's more likely to do the opposite. Not much of a theory, but it seems to have been historically true.
If the market is efficient, the collective expectations is what gives the price at a given moment. It is what people are will ing to pay for it and what people are willing to sell for.
>My theory is, everyone's expecting it to crash. //
That's how a crash happens isn't it? It's not driven by any wider economic reality beyond the conviction of "investors". If the investors can be convinced that it's crashing then it crashes. That certainly appears to be how manipulative exploitation of short positions occurs.
That's because short positions are defined by using borrowed money. Not only will they lose money in a crash, they will be bankrupted into unrepayable debt by a crash. So if they think it's crashing, they have to sell before a certain price because they do not have the money to cover their position.
I think your sample is too small. Old-world finance looks at the charts and expects a crash, but everyone who actually holds BTC seems to have a target price of $1M
My theory is, everyone's expecting it to crash. So therefore it's more likely to do the opposite. Not much of a theory, but it seems to have been historically true.