> That's very nearly the result we get here - note that the Basic Job estimates range from $300B to $1.5T.
The problem I have with this post is this. It is NOT useful information to have.
What is that range based on? Nothing. Your guesses. There is no known probability of the real-life result lying between those values, therefore the values are meaningless.
I'm all for models, models are great, but they need data. There's no point in a model based on assumptions, it's basically just a smokescreen for making your opinion look like fact.
> I would indeed tweak the model until I felt the probability distributions governing the assumptions covered all the plausible values.
Basically you would tweak the model until the result matched your opinion. If you had data of 100 similar startups and you calculated the distributions of their loans and sales growths, THEN AND ONLY THEN is your model useful
edit: I'm giving up on this thread now because I feel like this - http://xkcd.com/386/
> That's very nearly the result we get here - note that the Basic Job estimates range from $300B to $1.5T.
The problem I have with this post is this. It is NOT useful information to have.
What is that range based on? Nothing. Your guesses. There is no known probability of the real-life result lying between those values, therefore the values are meaningless.
I'm all for models, models are great, but they need data. There's no point in a model based on assumptions, it's basically just a smokescreen for making your opinion look like fact.
> I would indeed tweak the model until I felt the probability distributions governing the assumptions covered all the plausible values.
Basically you would tweak the model until the result matched your opinion. If you had data of 100 similar startups and you calculated the distributions of their loans and sales growths, THEN AND ONLY THEN is your model useful
edit: I'm giving up on this thread now because I feel like this - http://xkcd.com/386/