Do the smaller developers realize that the hardware manufactures pay development houses to do this? I've been paid by pretty much every AppStore provider to develop apps, which subsidizes me to undercut competition.
I feel like most app developers have a severe lack of business intelligence and the allure of easy money has kept them from thinking rationally about how to succeed in the market.
Provide a high quality cheap product at scale, while reducing risk of investment in every way possible. Companies like S2BB can replicate your cute app in days and provide it for free using carrier, oem, or AppStore provider subsidy.
I don't think smaller app devs even realize the uphill battle they are about to be playing.
One, the casual developer. A lot of these apps are being developed by programmers sitting in their underwear watching ESPN Gameday on Saturday morning. Or teenagers with nothing better to do. If they make money... well, that'd be great... but they really have other motivations.
That alone would flood the App Stores with product.
The second point, is economics.
ie - it doesn't matter.
If you live in an agrarian society... most likely, you have to be a farmer. It's largely irrelevant how many other farmers there are... it's probably the only thing you can do.
I think there is a similar dynamic in the app world. There are an AWFUL lot of unemployed programmers... chances are... they are going to ... well ... program. What else are they going to do with their time? It's actually a pretty smart thing for them to do as well. Keeping the skills sharp and all that.
So... I think that's, most likely, where a lot of the apps are coming from. And those two groups will only grow in the future.
A thought. I'm working on a virtual pet game (Firefox OS/Web based), and it's designed to be a mobile game. It's clear that I can't compete against, say, OMGPOP or Zynga. What I've chosen to do is target a very specific niche - "smart people". People like me, in other words, who aren't really very well served by the games on the market right now. I want my game to be intriguing and have depth of thought, if at all possible. I see this targeting as very different from a typical "Farmville" style game, and thus fairly lucrative.... if I can swing the business/sales/marketing side of it.
edit: Plug, plug - it will be alpha at some point in the next month or two, I hope. If my description intrigues you, email me, and I'll add your name to the tester list.
I feel like most app developers have a severe lack of business intelligence and the allure of easy money has kept them from thinking rationally about how to succeed in the market.
Provide a high quality cheap product at scale, while reducing risk of investment in every way possible. Companies like S2BB can replicate your cute app in days and provide it for free using carrier, oem, or AppStore provider subsidy.
I don't think smaller app devs even realize the uphill battle they are about to be playing.