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Peter Thiel (via Blake Masters) has a good discussion about this: http://blakemasters.com/post/21869934240/peter-thiels-cs183-...

Excerpt: "To a first approximation, a VC portfolio will only make money if your best company investment ends up being worth more than your whole fund." This is the big hit, and VC's are trying to optimize their chances of getting one of these. That's different from trying to precisely calculate expected return. As long as you've found it, it won't matter if you paid a bit too much.



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