I believe ekranoplans will come back. The biggest issue the Soviets faced with their ekranoplans should be addressable with modern technology. That issue is stability. The problem is when you have waves under the wings they create different pressures and air currents under the wings, which makes the airframe unstable and may cause it to flip to the side or dive into the water. That is why the soviet ekranoplans had enormous tails.
However, this is something that should be addressable nowadays. One should be able to design a system where a ladar scans the water surface ahead and a computer uses that information and various control surfaces on the wings to compensate for waves below the wings. It sounds very complex but it should be doable.
Of course, the ocean can produce waves that are much too big for ekranoplans regardless of what stability technology one uses. But another modern advantage is that we can now know the state of the ocean everywhere at any time, so a solution for this is that the ekranoplans simply should avoid areas with large waves.
These vehicles would be perfect for fast transport if fuel prices were lower. The problem is that with today's high fuel prices, the demand for fast but energy inefficient transport is not enough to justify researching new aircraft types.
But this also has good military potential. It is fast and yet it can carry much more weight than an airplane. It can carry enough armor to make it immune to anti-air missiles, yet it is fast enough to escape anti-ship missiles. It can carry all the active anti-missile technology of a warship, but not be a slow sitting duck like a warship. It can carry a powerful ship borne radar, yet move together with fighter formations. It can carry attack troops to beaches at high speeds and then land in the water right in front of the beach.
Stability was also the limiting factor in flying wings back in the 50s and 60s, and the B2 proved that electronics can solve that problem. So stability seems like a solved problem to me.
Military use seems like the most obvious use for these vehicles to me. One of the biggest obstacles to an invasion of the United States for countries that aren't Canada or Mexico, is transporting a large enough forces across the ocean rapidly enough. Even if China (for example,) were to defeat the US fleet, They'd still have a heck of a logistical problem getting troops on the US mainland. A super fact freighter would solve that problem. and conceivably enable a flanking attack. The same would be true of any transoceanic war.
If you're afraid that China will invade the USA then you should study history a bit more. That doesn't mean that it can not happen at all but the chances are slim. The USA invading China probably has much higher chance of happening.
Of all the countries on Earth, there are only really two that could mount a full scale invasion against the United States and hope to win, China and Russia. Neither is likely, but it would have to be one of them for us to consider this scenario.
Also, you're right that China invading the US is probably very unlikely, but probably not for any historical reasons. China and the US rely on each other too much as trading partners at this juncture for a full scale war to be wise. Also, much of China's wealth is wrapped up in US debt, a war with the US would endanger their savings. The biggest contention between the US and China at this point is the independence of Taiwan, which could lead to war, but not a mainland invasion of the United States.
Then again, if you do look at history, Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor was motivated by passive aggressive attempts by the United States to 'contain' Japan during the Second World War. Specifically, the United States blocked the import of oil to Japan. If the United States tries too hard to contain China, China might feel compelled to break the US's hold on the Pacific. This isn't like though, and a full scale war coming of it is also unlikely.
> Of course, the ocean can produce waves that are much too big for ekranoplans regardless of what stability technology one uses.
What about rogue waves? Ekranoplans would have to be able to detect and fly over rogue waves and ocean storm swells. Rogue waves don't occur that often, but ocean storm swells do. As you point out, it routine now to detect storm swell conditions.
> It can carry enough armor to make it immune to anti-air missiles, yet it is fast enough to escape anti-ship missiles.
I don't think it would be hard to redesign anti-ship missiles or AA missiles used in look-down/shoot-down systems to negate any evasion advantage ekranoplans would have.
Some Ekranoplans (like the Lun mentioned in the article) have the ability to fly above the ground effect zone, though less efficiently.
If rogue waves (or other rough sea) can be spotted far enough ahead, the plane could increase altitude over brief rough spots, settling back on to its ground effect cushion once calmer waters were reached.
Because it's travelling so much faster than surface waves, the lidar (or whatever scanning system) would only have to consider a relatively narrow field of view in front of the craft.
It also seems like more advanced fly-by-wire/computerized flight assistance technology could make them less prone to pilot error (e.g. banking too sharply, pulling back on the stick too hard and causing the ground-effect to dissipate, etc).
We don't even remotely know the state of the ocean everywhere. Even in well traveled sea lanes there are gaps of several hours between weather satellite passes.
Fuel prices aren't that high right now. GEVs are slightly more fuel efficient that regular aircraft but not enough to overcome all the disadvantages.
There's no way you can mount enough armor to provide immunity against modern missiles while still leaving useful cargo capacity. Armor is too heavy.
So nearly zero potential.
However, this is something that should be addressable nowadays. One should be able to design a system where a ladar scans the water surface ahead and a computer uses that information and various control surfaces on the wings to compensate for waves below the wings. It sounds very complex but it should be doable.
Of course, the ocean can produce waves that are much too big for ekranoplans regardless of what stability technology one uses. But another modern advantage is that we can now know the state of the ocean everywhere at any time, so a solution for this is that the ekranoplans simply should avoid areas with large waves.
These vehicles would be perfect for fast transport if fuel prices were lower. The problem is that with today's high fuel prices, the demand for fast but energy inefficient transport is not enough to justify researching new aircraft types.
But this also has good military potential. It is fast and yet it can carry much more weight than an airplane. It can carry enough armor to make it immune to anti-air missiles, yet it is fast enough to escape anti-ship missiles. It can carry all the active anti-missile technology of a warship, but not be a slow sitting duck like a warship. It can carry a powerful ship borne radar, yet move together with fighter formations. It can carry attack troops to beaches at high speeds and then land in the water right in front of the beach.
So .... a lot of potential.