What makes HN HN is different for different people. For me it is, more than anything, the community norms that structure the way discussions play out. The topics of those discussions only need to be mildly interesting - i.e. a well written book on ancient Egypt is objectively better than a mediocre book on Perl.
Starting with that attitude, I am less likely to forecast the HN apocalypse than someone starting with the converse view. In the end, it's a matter of faith. Mine is that despite change, HN will evolve in a healthy way. One of those ways that I am seeing made manifest is a greater emphasis on developing programmers into hackers without the baggage of startup ideology. I see this as something which reflects HN's broadening base.
I would freaking love it if we were having discussions on well written books on ancient Egypt.
I'd even freaking love it if we were discussing mediocre Perl books - so long as people were pointing out the mediocrities and better ways to do things.
I agree that the community norms help a lot with HN. I think that these norms are being diluted. I've seen some comments that would have been downvoted a year ago that are now upvoted. I've seen more obvious downvoting for disagreement (not saying that's bad, just that it's a bit more obvious).
As someone who hit the downvote threshold with a lot of help from well timed snark in the days of public comment scores and who used to rage inside at days of front page Apple fanboyism leading up to and following every Apple event, I am of the opinion that HN is, in many ways better than it was, not all that long ago.
This is not to say that I like the political stories. I am not shocked-shocked when I find gambling. Likewise, HN has always rewarded certain flavors of poor comments, but the floor keeps rising.
I don't view it as an "apocalypse", but as a very gradual settling under the waves. I still find good articles and interesting discussions here, but I'm on the lookout for 'the next thing', too.
The problem creating a site which beats HN is not chicken and egg. It's bulls. Assuming, I add something to HN, it's still not a user like me that makes or breaks HN. What the link to YC brings is an endless September. What retains freshman to become sophomores is the top of the food chain. How do you get Spolsky and Grellas and MattCutts etc. [e.g. PG] to leave - this is what is working for them.
Ships holed below the waterline don't slip beneath the waves except apocalypticly. Otherwise, wood plugs swell, compartments are sealed, the pumps manned, and a patch applied when time permits - and patching when time permits lends a certain aptness to the analogy.
The time I spend on HN is in part freed up because I have to some degree moved on from other online communities. Some like alt.architecture because they degraded, others because it was "suggested in aboslute terms," and others, more recently because I enjoy less spending with people who engage in more traditional internet behaviors and abide by a different set of norms. In part because, those norms influence my behavior.
Starting with that attitude, I am less likely to forecast the HN apocalypse than someone starting with the converse view. In the end, it's a matter of faith. Mine is that despite change, HN will evolve in a healthy way. One of those ways that I am seeing made manifest is a greater emphasis on developing programmers into hackers without the baggage of startup ideology. I see this as something which reflects HN's broadening base.