I'm not sure if it's safety, or a knowledge that risk assessment also has to take into account the risk that your assessment is wrong. How can anyone make a prediction of any 0.1% chance? The accuracy of the information going into combines in all sorts of horrible ways, and not likely to your advantage. There's no hypothetical in which that chance would make sense, in which it would be calculable and accurate, so instead we intuitively mark it as simply foolishly optimistic belief.

Plus, if you really did have solid odds, you could sell those odds, i.e., have someone invest in you.