I found the old discussion here on HackerNews although I haven't seen it before. I only found it now because I wanted to double-check my hypothesis and see if my understanding is really off. Seems like not: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42387013
That godbolt illustrates what I've been saying, yes. The godbolt example is exactly what I meant when I said "If you check after dereferencing it, yes it can [remove the check]".
https://godbolt.org/z/aPcr1bfPe