1. Yes, most startups failed in 1999 and most startups are failing now. This isn't unexpected. Anytime, there is a boom in startups, most of them are going to fail.
If the first 10 startups succeed there will be 100 more. If the first million startups succeed, there will be 10 million more. Ultimately, most of them will fail.
2. imo Andrew is mistaken in assuming that the failures are due to startups having a "super high bar for initial quality in their version 1".
If anything, I'd say that the quality of many apps is too low, Many of the big-name apps are often unstable and crash (not just in the V1 version, but in later versions as well)
These numbers are interesting, but the profile of a tech startup is very different from that of a typical "small business".
Accountants and manicurists and dentists and consultants run small businesses they start making money from a very early stage.
Tech startups have a much higher failure rate. The flip side is that these small businesses (accountants, gardeners etc.) don't have the same shot at massive scale/success that tech startups have. Andrew isn't talking about small businesses, his post is about tech startups
I don't think the point is that they fail, but how easy for them it is to get money (then later valuations) without having users nor revenue. That is what worries people when they draw the similarities with the first bubble.
1. Yes, most startups failed in 1999 and most startups are failing now. This isn't unexpected. Anytime, there is a boom in startups, most of them are going to fail.
If the first 10 startups succeed there will be 100 more. If the first million startups succeed, there will be 10 million more. Ultimately, most of them will fail.
2. imo Andrew is mistaken in assuming that the failures are due to startups having a "super high bar for initial quality in their version 1".
If anything, I'd say that the quality of many apps is too low, Many of the big-name apps are often unstable and crash (not just in the V1 version, but in later versions as well)