Starship: first attempt at the Moon, I'd guess 80%. No Mars windows.
--
AI: wildly unpredictable at every stage and in every regard. Cheaper, better, faster, more drama, that's all easy to predict, but how much of each and which specific benchmarks/legal issues are not.
Only AI capability predictions I will make are:
• Probably still no Tesla level 5 FSD, but Waymo will continue rolling out slowly and cautiously.
• Androids will still be split into cheap toys and expensive industrial equipment, not fully general domestic servants
--
Power:
• Wind power increases 7-21%
• PV increases 20-26%
• Fusion has some press releases, doesn't demonstrate much useful
• Battery production increases by about 33% while getting about 14% cheaper per unit
--
BigTech companies:
• At least one FAANG gets split up properly, possibly multiple. They've been annoying too many governments for too long.
• X gets more drama, but details are unpredictable. Could equally be "bankrupt", "mandatory for US federal government", "banned in EU, UK, Australia", "sold to Trump personally".
--
Consumer tech:
• Computers get about 31% more power efficient
• 50%: Some specific Smart Dust product revealed to public, people announce expensive paint contianing x motes of smart dust per litre.
• VR/AR: 25% dropped from news cycle like 3D TV, 50% continues like games consoles, 25% something that currently seems sci-fi
--
Geopolitics:
• Musk finds $2T to cut (66%), Congress pretends to take it seriously (80%), but nobody wants the cuts in their district (99.9%) so it stalls unless and until Musk can find a way to effectively buy out the downsides (80% chance Musk finds a way at all, but only 25% chance the method he finds is actually legal).
• US weapons stop being sent to Ukraine: (completely banned even for sale: 5%; they can be sold but no more are given "for free": 60-70%; repeat of previous Trump request for dirt on domestic opponents in exchange for aid: 30-40%)
• EU aid stops going to Ukraine: 1% while they remain independent, 99% if they get conquered.
• Ukraine develops nuclear deterrent: 30-50% if aid stops or is threatened, otherwise 5-10%
• Putin dies: assassinated, ~2%; all other causes, ~4%
• Trump dies: assassinated, 1-2.25%; all other causes, 5-6%
--
AI: wildly unpredictable at every stage and in every regard. Cheaper, better, faster, more drama, that's all easy to predict, but how much of each and which specific benchmarks/legal issues are not.
Only AI capability predictions I will make are:
• Probably still no Tesla level 5 FSD, but Waymo will continue rolling out slowly and cautiously.
• Androids will still be split into cheap toys and expensive industrial equipment, not fully general domestic servants
--
Power:
• Wind power increases 7-21%
• PV increases 20-26%
• Fusion has some press releases, doesn't demonstrate much useful
• Battery production increases by about 33% while getting about 14% cheaper per unit
--
BigTech companies:
• At least one FAANG gets split up properly, possibly multiple. They've been annoying too many governments for too long.
• X gets more drama, but details are unpredictable. Could equally be "bankrupt", "mandatory for US federal government", "banned in EU, UK, Australia", "sold to Trump personally".
--
Consumer tech:
• Computers get about 31% more power efficient
• 50%: Some specific Smart Dust product revealed to public, people announce expensive paint contianing x motes of smart dust per litre.
• VR/AR: 25% dropped from news cycle like 3D TV, 50% continues like games consoles, 25% something that currently seems sci-fi
--
Geopolitics:
• Musk finds $2T to cut (66%), Congress pretends to take it seriously (80%), but nobody wants the cuts in their district (99.9%) so it stalls unless and until Musk can find a way to effectively buy out the downsides (80% chance Musk finds a way at all, but only 25% chance the method he finds is actually legal).
• US weapons stop being sent to Ukraine: (completely banned even for sale: 5%; they can be sold but no more are given "for free": 60-70%; repeat of previous Trump request for dirt on domestic opponents in exchange for aid: 30-40%)
• EU aid stops going to Ukraine: 1% while they remain independent, 99% if they get conquered.
• Ukraine develops nuclear deterrent: 30-50% if aid stops or is threatened, otherwise 5-10%
• Putin dies: assassinated, ~2%; all other causes, ~4%
• Trump dies: assassinated, 1-2.25%; all other causes, 5-6%