An interesting prediction is one that is predictive of something impactful and correctly predicts something which is currently significantly under weighted by others.
Given this I'll say that 2025 is going to be a significant year geopolitically and economically for Western Europe. Social unrest is rising here, especially around the topic of immigration, and countries like France and the UK are currently on a path to fiscal crisis if we cannot get spending under control.
My prediction is that in 2025 Trump brings to implement more tariffs on China and these tariffs are met with relation by China. Europe tries to remain somewhat neutral, but under threat of tariffs themselves ultimately sides with the US against China resulting in retaliatory tariffs from China on Europe.
Inflation starts rising globally again, resulting in increased borrowing costs which triggers an economic crisis in Europe given recessionary growth and debt servicing costs spiking, ultimately forcing governments to make significant cuts in spending.
The social unrest this results in ultimately further amplifies the populist far-right in Europe, and for this reason 2025 will be looked back at as the year which triggered a meaningful change in the post-war political consensus.
I might be wrong. As someone living in Europe right now though I am worried. Things seem to be really breaking down on multiple fronts and it's not clear to me how things could just go back to normality at this point. Given where we are right now – especially now with the election of Trump – 2025 seems like the year something might finally give.
I agree with you (living in europe as well); I don't think it will happen in 2025; probably trump year 1 will go fine and europe will just go further down as it is. But somewhere in this trump term, all dominos will fall: US debt storm, normal people in the biggest economy no longer being able to live of their wages, the rich owning all, followed by a massive recession; this will be the final straw for a weakened europe. I am not entirely sure how to arm for this, but I will have to find out.
> As someone living in Europe right now though I am worried.
Im optimistic, we're only one major negative event/disaster away from the EU members rallying behind the EU. It doesn't look good right now, but the right wing anti EU crowed normally aren't good at taking responsibility and they will hand over problems to Bruxelles as soon as things get a bit spicy. And I don't think the EU is too bad at making the right call, in the end.
Given this I'll say that 2025 is going to be a significant year geopolitically and economically for Western Europe. Social unrest is rising here, especially around the topic of immigration, and countries like France and the UK are currently on a path to fiscal crisis if we cannot get spending under control.
My prediction is that in 2025 Trump brings to implement more tariffs on China and these tariffs are met with relation by China. Europe tries to remain somewhat neutral, but under threat of tariffs themselves ultimately sides with the US against China resulting in retaliatory tariffs from China on Europe.
Inflation starts rising globally again, resulting in increased borrowing costs which triggers an economic crisis in Europe given recessionary growth and debt servicing costs spiking, ultimately forcing governments to make significant cuts in spending.
The social unrest this results in ultimately further amplifies the populist far-right in Europe, and for this reason 2025 will be looked back at as the year which triggered a meaningful change in the post-war political consensus.
I might be wrong. As someone living in Europe right now though I am worried. Things seem to be really breaking down on multiple fronts and it's not clear to me how things could just go back to normality at this point. Given where we are right now – especially now with the election of Trump – 2025 seems like the year something might finally give.