Interestingly, it might be true that Saddam Hussein did pivot to fake ones. After the complete destruction of his conventional military in 1991, it seems he decided that the only way to keep Iran or some other unfriendly neighbor from invading him (1) was to convince everyone that he had chemical weapons. This might have applied even to his own generals. I have heard that when US forces were interrogating Iraqi generals after the fall of Baghdad International Airport, they would ask them where were the chemical weapons and General A said that he didn't have any of them, but he was told that General B had them, and General B was sure that General C had them because he knew that he didn't, and General C thought that General A had them. At least, this was a story I heard verbally from someone involved, I've never tracked down the documentation to see if that was real (I was an intern working on non-proliferation before the invasion of Iraq, so I so I knew some people in that world, but pursued a different path and don't know how true this story is).
1: In roughly the same way that he had invaded Iran in 1980 when that country was in disarray after the fall of the Shah. Note that he doesn't seem to have noticed that his invasion was a huge disaster for Iraq, killing huge numbers of people, destroying massive quantities of stuff, going deeply into debt- so much debt that he decided to try and seize Kuwait, bringing the wrath of the United Nations down upon him- and gaining him exactly nothing. The idea that other leaders might be smart enough NOT to do that never seems to have crossed his mind.
Re your last point, there have been many deaths in war caused by overestimating the enemy's intelligence. Or misunderstanding their perspectives and red lines.
1: In roughly the same way that he had invaded Iran in 1980 when that country was in disarray after the fall of the Shah. Note that he doesn't seem to have noticed that his invasion was a huge disaster for Iraq, killing huge numbers of people, destroying massive quantities of stuff, going deeply into debt- so much debt that he decided to try and seize Kuwait, bringing the wrath of the United Nations down upon him- and gaining him exactly nothing. The idea that other leaders might be smart enough NOT to do that never seems to have crossed his mind.