They're constantly saying this about everything.

They also threatened UA with a full scale invasion by doing troop trainings on the border for several years before the real thing.

The point isn't that they don't do things, it's that there are people issuing a constant stream of threats and people doing things, and it's not entirely clear there is even a correlation between the two.

in other words, we need their false negative rate

> we need their false negative rate

We have it. It's almost 100%. They've been threatening WWIII and nuclear armageddon since 2022.

That is not as comforting a comparison as you might think it is.

In my experience, the problem is also that one group of people refuses to act on what the other side actually says (because it’s inconvenient/dangerous).

every once in a while they actually follow through with some. they need some prison mafia credibility to not look like total clowns.