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Oh ok. I thought we were talking about the article (or at least claims that are just as bold):

"Deep learning works, and we will solve the remaining problems."

"It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!)"



It was more in reply to "people in the AI community have"... Which some of them have but the Moravec type stuff has been quite accurate.

Technically a few thousand days covers quite a range. 20 thousand is 55 years.

On the Kurzweil graph, extrapolating hardware progress from 1900 through 2000, superintelligence seems to be roughly 2035, depending on how you define things. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Kurzweils-8-71-chart-of-...




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