How long is the long run, because 20+ years later, they seem to be doing better than almost every other business in the world, or at least tied in the top 3.
If you look at the last 25 years Microsoft has ended up with more misses than hits. Azure and xBox are the big hits (both from the Balmer era), but they missed in so many other places (mobile notably). They spent most of the Balmer era looking over the shoulder at the DOJ and missed many opportunities as a result.
The Nadella era has seen a lot acquisitions and investments, and they are milking the Windows/Office cash cow until it falls over, but everything else seems to be moribund. Revenue in every segment of Microsoft apart from Azure has either been flat or in decline for the last decade based on the last chart I saw.
What happens when the Azure cash cow stops growing? I don't see anything in the pipeline that Microsoft has that others also don't have access to.
I think if Microsoft had been split up into 3 companies (OS, software, web properties) then it would have moved them beyond the DOJ era quicker and would have put those 3 companies in a much better position to reap more opportunities from the 2000-2020 boom across a wider space.
