in Bayesian epistemology, the arguments to probability "functions" are beliefs.
To simplify my phrasing: to model any aspect of reality requires inventing a formalism; that formalism itself largely fails to correspond to reality. insofar as it does, the formalism is useless.
Bayesian epistemology pretends to greater insights than it has, because it assumes that the modelling relation is simple; whereas, really its where the whole part of epistemology lies.
To simplify my phrasing: to model any aspect of reality requires inventing a formalism; that formalism itself largely fails to correspond to reality. insofar as it does, the formalism is useless.
Bayesian epistemology pretends to greater insights than it has, because it assumes that the modelling relation is simple; whereas, really its where the whole part of epistemology lies.