As one of the few that have already converged to electric, and have parents in classic homes/with ICEs cars well... Heat pumps works well in NEW home, in old home they work BUT the needed power is a problem for the grid if applied on scale + BEV charging, we simply can't produce enough electricity to keep the grid frequency.
That's the real point: the new deal works, and it's needed for various reasons, a bit different than those for who is advertised, but it can ONLY be realistically done in new homes on scale or being limited to very mild climate or climate with moderately warm winter and even hot summers, but hot only during the day, where coupled with p.v. we can shift peak demand on p.v.
For the entire world, like it or not, we need new constructions, new buildings in dense cities are a no go, so we need de-urbanization. BTW de-urbanization can be done AND can produce a gazillion of benefits if done well, only it's not good for those who live on human pasture. Those + the classic reactionarism of the mean people give a bad evolution so a bad outcome for us all.
To give some numbers: living in a COLDER zone than before I heat a home twice the size of the previous with 1-4kW absorbed power. The old one: 24kW methane gas. A neighbor have switched it's ancient diesel based heating with a heat-pump that absorb 8kW, well, if all home nearby absorb 8kW, let's say 10kW since there is not only the heating we need an updated grid, witch is doable BUT generating enough energy it's another business. In summer my consumption are at 80+% on p.v., but heating happen in winter and during night and early morning in particular.
I would love to make the switch, but my house is from the 1930s era and heated by gas/steam. Mini-splits might work, but I'd need 4 for the top floor and 2-3 for the first. Then I would have a "discussion" with my partner about how the inside part of mini splits doesn't clash with 1930s millwork all that much.
Punching holes in plaster also carries an asbestos risk from the plaster and vermiculite insulation. joys of an old home...
My HVAC guy likes heat pumps, but he thinks their lifespan is about 1/2 or 2/3 the life of an HVAC unit; the equipment is the same (pumps, motors, etc), but the heat pump runs nonstop year-round. He still prefers heat pumps, since they're all electric, and can be solar powered (I'm in Texas); so, the combination makes a lot more sense, in the long-run.
That's the real point: the new deal works, and it's needed for various reasons, a bit different than those for who is advertised, but it can ONLY be realistically done in new homes on scale or being limited to very mild climate or climate with moderately warm winter and even hot summers, but hot only during the day, where coupled with p.v. we can shift peak demand on p.v.
For the entire world, like it or not, we need new constructions, new buildings in dense cities are a no go, so we need de-urbanization. BTW de-urbanization can be done AND can produce a gazillion of benefits if done well, only it's not good for those who live on human pasture. Those + the classic reactionarism of the mean people give a bad evolution so a bad outcome for us all.
To give some numbers: living in a COLDER zone than before I heat a home twice the size of the previous with 1-4kW absorbed power. The old one: 24kW methane gas. A neighbor have switched it's ancient diesel based heating with a heat-pump that absorb 8kW, well, if all home nearby absorb 8kW, let's say 10kW since there is not only the heating we need an updated grid, witch is doable BUT generating enough energy it's another business. In summer my consumption are at 80+% on p.v., but heating happen in winter and during night and early morning in particular.