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Corolla killer is jumping the gun a bit. Will these cars still be operational in 30+ years? What will their condition be like after 500,000km on the clock?

Once they reach these milestones then maybe they can call themselves a Corolla killer.



At that price, does it matter? You know what a Toyota costs today new? How many people drive their car to 500k km?


Almost everyone puchased will be driven to that extent. Person A from 0-125k selling it to person B who drvies it to 200k selling to person C who drives it to 375k selling it to person D who ...

The car lasts and is driven after it is traded by it's first owner if it remains in good condition. Toyota and their Corolla brand has /EARNED/ the right to be at the top of the tree on that count and maintained it over many decades.


Yes, but there is no incentive for Person A to choose a brand new Corolla when it's $22K and the alternative is $15K. The value depreciation when they sell to person B will be lower than the Corolla, especially when factoring the fuel savings in.


Why do you think there will be a lower value depreciation for a Chinese EV than a Toyota? Toyotas have insane resale value. We bought a 2012 Toyota 4Runner used for $30,000 in 2016. KBB on it now, at 12 years old and 130,000 miles, is still $15-18k.


> Why do you think there will be a lower value depreciation for a Chinese EV than a Toyota?

Because it's cheaper to buy and cheaper to drive.

Let's start with your example (12 years, 130K miles, 50% depreciation). Let's assume that the EV depreciates much more (80%):

Corolla value depreciation = $11K

BYD Value depreciation: $12K

From a purely financial perspective, it doesn't mean to invest $22K instead of $15K for a $1K gain after 12 years.

Now the calculation above does not take the energy costs into account [1]:

Petrol cost @ 130K miles = $20K

Electric cost @ 130K miles = $4.5K

[1] https://avt.inl.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/fsev/costs.pdf


Nailed it, that's the point. I don't know why people love cars that last forever, even if financially it doesn't make sense for the first owner.


Because they’re emotionally tied to the idea of longevity vs service life.


>Yes, but there is no incentive for Person A to choose a brand new Corolla when it's $22K and the alternative is $15K

"Hey I know Corollas last a while, and wtf is this weird-ass company I've never heard of? I'm sticking with Toyota."

^ Incentive enough.


In a few years it'll be like "Oh, it's BYD, they're everywhere right now, of course I'll buy it second hand".


I bought a 2002 Corolla in 2011, gave it to a relative in 2019, who recently sold it for more than half what I paid 12 years prior.

Not 500k km but past 300k ie your point is spot on


Is there data around this? I have personally never seen a personal car much beyond 200,000 miles.


In my circle of friends/family/neighbors/acquaintances, it's common to have a vehicle over 200k miles. Over 300k is noteworthy but not unheard of. Both of my cars are over 275k (bought them a little before the 250k mark).

One guy I see regularly is driving a 400k mile minivan. At my previous job I saw a customer driving a 500k mile Corolla, as well as a couple of customers with 400k, and countless over 200k.

This is in Kansas.


My 2004 Ford Mustang had 382k miles. This is the best picture I have (did you know that Google Photos can search for "odometer"??)

https://photos.app.goo.gl/rKMXEzRkR7NauPaB9

I received the car at about 370k miles, drove it about 10k more for ~2 years in college. The only problem I ever had with it was the battery sucked in the winter.


I think they are talking kilometers


I have a '97 Jeep XJ at ~214,000 miles. They do exist :)


Hasn't rusted through?


Nope. That's mostly (I guess?) an issue in places with a lot of winter months that use salt on the roads instead of sand. It's had a bit of rust, but nothing a buzzbox welder and some steel sheets couldn't patch.


If price is your only concern you could also buy a 1990 Corolla for a fraction of that price too. And it’ll likely still run pretty flawlessly.

I wonder if these will stand the test of time is the point I’m trying to make.



I was looking for a car for my kid last night and stumbled upon this gem: https://www.craigslist.org/about/best/hou/6565526716.html


Not all Toyotas stand the test of time either.

We owned one that barely made it to 120k miles (Matrix, which was essentially a hatchback Corolla) and would have required more money to keep it running than the vehicle was worth.

And yes, it was well maintained.


I loved my Matrix, but it was a dual venture with Pontiac. I always assumed that was part of the problem.


The weird thing about that is that the Pontiac version (Vibe) was built in Fremont, CA on the same assembly line as the Corolla, but the Matrix was built in Ontario. So you actually got the better car if you went with the GM badge!

(And yes, that Fremont factory that built the Corolla is now the Tesla factory)


My dad bought a corolla in early '90s, which he used for over 20 years without significant issues. We eventually sold it and got a new car mainly because of the much better safety measures in modern vehicles.


I was not aware there was an EV Corolla in 1990..?

I see no mention of this on the usual car&drivers.


There was, however, an EV RAV4 in 1997 (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV)


There's one I see in my local city center all the time, they live about two miles away so not a big trip. :)


Cool! Thanks for the link.


This mindset is why everything is getting worse and waste is increasing.

By now we should have exceptionally long lasting engineered products at low prices because of “technology” and productivity.


If a car is half the price and lasts half as long, what's the issue? Why do we need to gatekeep car ownership for people that can't afford to buy a car that lasts 2 decades? You bring up waste as an issue, but I don't see anything intrinsically wrong with waste, aside from any externalities associated with it. If that's what you're concerned about, those should be taxed at the source, rather than letting that slide but trying to regulate it by enforcing minimum durability standards.


> aside from any externalities associated with it

lol "i don't see any problems with waste aside from the problems with waste"

have you ever see those drone shots of children playing on 90ft mountains of fast fashion discards in chile and ghana or whatever? when you watch that, do you nod along sagely because the free market working perfectly and that's comforting for you

also, i disagree with the premise that we are "gatekeeping" car ownership unless we race to the bottom. you can buy used cars!


>lol "i don't see any problems with waste aside from the problems with waste"

And if you read the sentence right after, you'd see my alternate proposal rather than trying to set an arbitrary durability threshold.

>If that's what you're concerned about, those should be taxed at the source, rather than letting that slide but trying to regulate it by enforcing minimum durability standards.


That’s a good description of the insane dystopia we’re all culpable in.

Born into this nightmare with no ways out


The MSRP of a baseline 2024 Corolla is $22,050. No idea what you actually pay out the door.

Assuming both of those sticker prices are accurate, I might still be leaning towards the Toyota. I know it will last for a long time and have no problems obtaining parts/repairs so long as I own it.


I don't know about now, but I was in the market for cars during Covid and the dealers were truly jacking up the prices. Corollas were definitely not in the 22k range. Hopefully the situation improved.


I assume there are lots of people out there that can't afford a $22k car but they can afford a $11k, even if it's low quality.


They can get a $11k high quality second-hand Corolla.


Many people don't want second-hand cars


What? Most people actually do want a second-hand car.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183713/value-of-us-passe...

I've never bought a new car in my life.

A new car is great but loses on average 10% of its value as soon as it leaves the dealer's lot, and after 5 years, depreciates to 40% of its value. You can often get a barely used car for a lot less than its MSRP.


My current car lost maybe 10-15% off it's original price over the last 3.5 years and it's a Skoda. Mostly thanks to inflation and supply chain issues.


I guess the US are different from other places

In Europe plenty of people only want new cars


As one data point, Last week I bought a 2024 Toyota Corolla with 29k€. It has midrange options and a premium color finish.


the Car and Driver recommended trim level is $25k, and a random google search says 12 years (across all vehicles) is an average ownership period and ~13,700 miles/year. so napkin math and the average is over 250k km for the vehicle lifetime. i suspect toyota is meaningfully higher, but can’t prove it.

at that price, and with those economics, i think a great many people would care

lol i found an uncited figure from a toyota dealership saying the average miles driven is 200k - 250k, which is ~400,000km on the high end https://www.toyotaofclermont.com/research/how-long-do-toyota...


Add $1-2k in fuel savings a year. If you have home solar even more.


Maybe, but somehow I don’t see the majority of people buying a sub $30,000 car having home solar.


Most people I know would never even consider buying a new car and pay more like $5k (maybe max $10k), nothing near $30k. But lots of them have home solar. I can see them going for a new EV if EVs are much cheaper than for an equivalent ICE car.


I was curious so I looked it up. The 2024 Corolla starts at $21,900 in the US. The cheapest '24 I could find was the Nissan Versa at $16,390.

Of course, neither of these are electric. But they are also well known makes in the American market.


TCO. Corolla + gas > BYD + electric.


Plus all of the other costs such as repairs, factored with life span.

If I have to replace a BYD every 3 years at $15k, a Corolla that lasts 15+ is going to come out ahead.


Minus resale.


> At that price, does it matter?

There is a massive environmental impact to build a car, so yes. Absolutely.


that is the point. if you had an old corolla you might not care about the price of any new vehicle. and this isn’t just new, it is new to (limited) market. unproven, over time.

$15k is sufficient to make most individuals hesitate briefly. perhaps you have enough saved away to be a bit more cavalier with such amounts.


The average price of a new car in the US is ~$48k. This car competes against new cars, not old, used cars.

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/buying-a-car/people-spe...

I don’t know anyone who would hesitate at $15k considering current state of the auto market. I do know there’s lots of middle class and below who would finance it and give it a chance, versus a $500-$1000 monthly note at current vehicle prices and interest rates.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/auto-loan-average-payments-2023...


Average price of a vehicle is not a good metric for this. If a bunch of Americans finance $150k trucks (and they do!), that inflates the average, but it's not relevant.

What's relevant is the lowest price for the economy/compact model of a mainstream brand, which seem to be around $20k. For a $5k difference (or less) I don't know if gambling on a new Chinese electric car would be that attractive.


that is a very strange claim to try and make. this car competes against anything that can move a body. how well it competes is yet to be seen.


Those high prices were in a period of both low interest rates and, during the pandemic, limited supply pushed to the most expensive models. I will be surprised if they stay that high under current interest rates and economic concerns.


I have my doubts about that being the average car price. Is that considering all consumer vehicles (SUVs, trucks)?

Baseline Toyota/Honda is still going to be ~$25k


https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g39628015/best-selling-car...

For a while, trucks and SUVs hold a significant portion of most sold vehicles in the US.


Do you have the same stat for median, instead of average?


In 10 years both of them will be utterly outdated, but it might be easier to replace the battery with a cheaper lighter 2034 model. Resale price of both will be governed by the price of new equivalent electric cars in 2034. If you’re allowed to drive the Toyota near a city. It’ll be like smoking laws in 20 years.

(We currently drive an old ICE Toyota because post-Covid prices were nuts and I’m not overcapitalising given the above.)


We have an MG ZS ev, and we've done 110,000km in 3 years. Battery capacity is at 93% which I think is pretty good, but I don't intend to be driving this for 30 years.


How have you found it? I almost bought one, but charging stations weren't very convenient in my location at the time, I kind of regret it now.


The newer models are much better than what I have. It's surprisingly quick off the lights, which is fun because it looks like a very ordinary SUV.

It's quiet, the glass roof is nice - I'll never go back to a petrol car.


The article isn’t suggesting this is a better vehicle than the Corolla. It’s saying it’ll eat the Corolla’s market share.


Easily, assuming decent quality. Electric motors last a lot longer than IC engines. Batteries can be replaced. Bearings etc about the same.


What about software updates? So much of the car relies on well-managed up-to-date software, far beyond what any corolla has.


All new cars, including Toyta Corollas, have a lot of software in them, and it should be updated from time to time, e.g. to fix bugs. For example, see:

https://www.toyota.com/firmware-updates#


Probably the EV will last even longer given the comparative simplicity of an electric motor vs internal combustion engine.


If enough of these are sold, it doesn't matter if they're reliable, since repairing any issues will become cheap.

Garages all round the country will be able to disassemble and reassemble to swap any part in minutes, and there will be a super cheap non-oem clone of every part that fails.


I bet a lot of owners like to assume they can arrive at their destination most of the time when they get in their car.


EV driving costs me 3p/mile vs 12p/mile for my old diesel. That would be a £27k saving on fuel over that distance.


Is a 30-year-old Corolla that safe?


who cares. you can buy 3 of them


I never seen a Corolla go to 500,000km... Are they common




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