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The Death of Free Shipping (msn.com)
34 points by elsewhen on Feb 18, 2024 | hide | past | favorite | 61 comments


For the first time in many years my family cancelled our Amazon Prime subscription. We did it for a lot of reasons, but one of them was the (somewhat obvious) realization that free shipping isn't free, it's just prepaid and subsidized.

A quick look at eBay auctions for a given item will reveal (quite quickly) an interesting phenomenon: eBay Sellers will list the same item several times over with different prices, and different shipping costs. They often add up to the same total cost, but clearly buyers have different tolerance thresholds for what they'll pay for shipping vs what they'll pay for a product.

Much like with anything else that's "free", it's not free. Someone else is just paying for it (and sometimes that someone is just you)


Another realization is that "Prime" doesn't even give you free shipping. Rather, Amazon generally has free shipping and Prime just removes the order minimum and stops them from spitefully delaying your order by a week.

I believe the rise of "free" shipping had a lot to do with manufacturer minimum price fixing. Personally I'd prefer to have the shipping cost be explicit, but also be paying less per product. But something tells me if this narrative gains legs and retailers are able to claw back "free shipping", they won't be removing that margin from the individual products.

As for the article, the moralizing about being an "asshole" is completely unjustified. The big retailers are playing constant pricing games through dynamic pricing, sales, coupons, etc to extract as much money possible from people. I'm not going to feel guilty about following the rules they've created to save a few bucks by doing things like returning items that I preemptively ordered to take advantage of a sale, without thinking about whether I actually want them or not. They're hoping "free returns" will induce me to buy crap I don't want, I mitigate that by batching my buying sprees and putting the due date on my calendar. "What's right" has left the dynamic a long time ago.


Between that and the introduction of ads on Prime Video, I’m tempted to cancel as well. I probably won’t yet, but it’s no longer a no-brainer to renew.


Somehow, I've managed to get one of my systems to consistently skip those ads. The screen will go black for a moment like it's trying to load or play an ad but then the video will just resume. This happens with both the freevee stuff, and the regular prime video that now has ads.

Pretty sure it's some rule I added to ublock but I haven't spent the time figuring out which exactly. But seems it's still possible to block those ads.


Eh, ads can be blocked. 5% cash back on travel alone on the other hand makes it continue to be a no-brainer. (And Whole Foods if you shop there).

Everyone understands that you still pay for free shipping. That’s not the point though. If you have prime your stuff ships first. If you don’t — you pay for shipping and/or have to wait longer. Sometimes on purpose, sometimes not.

And then there is a massive list of other affiliate services prime members can use - each one another reason to use prime, if you happen to use those services.

I’m actually surprised how cheap prime is considering its value.


Is there a ceiling on cash back? Some spends $20000 travel gets $1k back vs $400 on traditional cash rewards. That would be competitive but most high rewards have caps?


For me, the credit card points more than outweigh the cost of Prime. However, as soon as I heard the writing was on the wall with streaming video, the diminishing willingness of companies to pay for advertisements, inflation, and the dopamine-driven hunt for new content, I switched to physical media.


Note you have to spend $7,000/yr to break even on the additional CC points considering the price of Prime. I have spent way, way under that the last few years.

With the addition of ads to their streaming service, I am out. They don’t offer enough to be worth it anymore.


With an Amazon card at 5% on Amazon purchases (up to $120k) all you need to spend is < $4000/year and it breaks even. There are reasons that make sense to stop using prime, but not for the money, it’s still a steal.


I dont think you are quite right. To the best of my knowledge, you get 3% back on the Amazon branded cards. If you have prime, then you get 2 more percentage to a total of 5%. So to make up for the difference of $139, the price of prime in terms of cash back, you have to spend $6950 (or ~7000 as the OP said) to break even.

Now if you have Discover or Chase Freedom, they run the 5% quarterly bonus (for the first $1500 spent on the bonus category) at least once a year, so your break even point is even more than what I mentioned earlier (closer to $10K).


Ali Express does the same thing now, with different sellers offering apparently different prices but compensating with shipping costs. Which is reasonable; what's not so great is that you get listings that advertise "Free Shipping" but aren't, and that often the picture you see is of item A but the price shown is for a lesser item B in the same listing.


> often the picture you see is of item A but the price shown is for a lesser item B in the same listing

Many large eBay sellers do this. For example, they may offer phone cases for £5 each and a screen cleaning kit for £1, all as different variants of the same listing, so that their listing appears alongside other £1 items in a search for phone cases. It is technically a violation of eBay's listing policy,[1] but is widespread as the rule is not enforced in practice.

1. https://www.ebay.co.uk/help/policies/listing-policies/search...


When buying from a traditional retailer, the amount refunded for a return is a factor — shipping costs are not reimbursed so you are carrying more risk if quality/sizing isn’t as expected.


The idea that shoppers are getting shipping for free when they receive "free shipping" is a bit of a tall tale on both the retailer and consumer side.

This article talks about the fact that adding an additional shipping charge is painful after years of conditioning customers to expect that charge to be $0.

Yet it's not as if retailers have had to eat 100% of that cost in the absence of a separate line item on the order. Consumers are aware that shipping charges are often priced into the base cost of the items, especially from online-only retailers who don't need to maintain the illusion of having the same price in store and online.

Personally, I like the idea of baking the shipping cost into the price of the item. (I also like the idea of baking gratuities into the cost of restaurant meals.) And if a company then wants to offer some discount for quantity or loyalty or whatever, that's fine.


I think there's an objective reason for the buyer to prefer that the shipping cost be baked-in. In the case of a problem with the product, such that I get a refund, I'll be getting back the cost of the shipping as well. If the cost were separate, then I'd have to eat that loss.


In the UK and Europe you are entitled to be reimbursed for the shipping if there's a problem with the product. In my experience, they won't volunteer it so you need to ask.


There's no such thing as a free lunch, regardless of how you distribute the costs. If a seller is refunding the cost of shipping on returns, they are passing that cost on to you in some other way (higher prices, membership fees, etc).

You could make the argument that if you return items more often than the average customer, your share of those costs may be getting subsidized by the customers who return items less often. But if you return items less often, you're probably worse off.


No, in a competitive market they are not necessarily “passing that cost on.” For instance, an online retailer must compete with bricks-and-mortar stores. At local stores, all shipping and returns are free. If online retailer’s price is too high, it might simply lose the sale. Its price, including shipping, must compete with the price at the store.

I hear this “passing the cost on” argument all the time and it always presumes that the consumer is the only cost taker. It forgets that costs can also get passed to someone else: the shareholders, in the form of lower profits.


I bought a $10 item with $10 shipping on eBay; it was broken. Offered a refund of the product, not the shipping and I'd have to eat shipping. All that for basically $5. Always get free shipping!


Per the article, “free” shipping (and returns) incentivizes inefficient behavior. Instead of grouping your purchases and avoiding speculative purchases, you just buy anything you think you might like, whenever you think of it, and inefficiently ship things one at a time.

Even worse, the shoppers who are being thoughtful effectively subsidize the worst actors. My return rate for non-damaged goods is sub 1%, but I pay the “baked in” price of shipping for the average purchaser - the same rate as the person returning 99% of their orders.


Did the article really prove that though? The reason these extreme cases get so much press is because they're outliers, not because they're the normal thing everyone does.


I don’t know that it proved anything, but it did say the average return rate for 2022 was 16.5%, which is at least an order of magnitude higher than mine and a pretty large inefficiency.


I don’t think this is true, at least in electronics. The price in store at competitors is the same as the price on Amazon but with free shipping… I see it more like the shipping costs are similar or less than the overhead of having a brick and mortar store, so it works out anyway.


If you believe the FTC in their current active anti trust case, the reason for this is that if Amazon sees your product for cheaper elsewhere (even if it's the same after shipping), they will down rank your product in search results and add friction to the buying process.

Since no manufacturer can risk having no Amazon sales, this means the manufacturer requires a base price that matches Amazon.

Amazon recoups free shipping cost through additional merchant markups.

This means consumers pay increased prices everywhere, and we are all indirectly paying the free shipping cost even if you walk into a store.


Keeping shipping costs separate incentivises aggregating multiple items for more efficient shipping though (and for buying things you don't really need of course).


Recently bought 86 Ethernet cables from Monoprice. There with 55 tracking numbers. 54 envelopes with one cable each and the rest in one box. All of them seemingly came from the same place.

My household consistently sees Amazon ignoring our designated delivery day as well as using multiple drivers per day to deliver to us. The peak I noticed on the security camera was 6 drivers in one day. All the items were made with a single purchase.


fast, free shipping is the reason online shopping is dominating retail. If I have to wait a week and pay to return stuff, I’ll just go buy it in person. Then at least I’ve got the perk of it actually going through a legitimate supply chain and probably not being counterfeit and/or unsafe, like many things on Amazon these days.


Good luck finding where to buy in person. All driven out of business


This was a low quality clickbait fluff piece. The article did not match the headline at all. It gives the authors vague musings that some online retailers bake the shipping cost into the prices and offer free shipping, as has been the case for decades. It does not give any evidence whatsoever that the trend is going towards paid shipping.


One trend in my local Amazon that took me some time to notice was that sellers are no longer selling cheap stuffs at cost - I forgot what it was but let's say there was a little decorative gardening blind cap, and that cap was normally sold at $1.50 at physical stores, and it's $7.50 on Amazon. I was almost buying one of such things, then realized it can't cost that much, and that I can just walk to a physical store that has it to get it instantly.

That made me realize that pricing on Internet is now more proportionate to utility than cost to deliver. People in the market for a cap to cover an unsightly pipe in the backyard pays that price, especially under $15 or whatever relative tolerable multiple of local minimum wages.


When I encounter free shipping outside of Amazon, it is usually connected with a minimum purchase amount. Spend €50 or over and shipping is free.


Even on Amazon (in Germany) shipping is free starting at 39€ only. It used to be 19€ a few years back. Often when I add an item to get free shipping, they are then shipped separately anyway (presumably they are stocked in a different logistics center), so it's not as if this whole thing reduces actual shipping overhead. They are just selling me more stuff.


I run a small online store for decal’s for the geek market. When I say small - I mean I regularly only have 4 items listed. Think HANKA Robotics, TARS and the like.

I keep my costs to the bare minimum. I started it because I wanted decals no one else was making. I cannot justify feee shipping.

In the UK I eat the cost as it is about £1 to ship UK wide. Posting to the US is now around £7. I need to send tracked thanks to the selling platform.

It honestly pains me to have to charge shipping - but I could’t do it any other way. I can only imagine the costs that are associated with this for bigger outfits. Heck. Even Amazon has a logistics company now (but I suppose that’s where the Prime premium comes in!)


Either you charge shipping or you provide "free shipping" and make the products more expensive.

Usually the second option is more lucrative because it feels more attractive to customers, and if someone buys from a cheaper-to-ship location or buys multiple products you save more on shipping without passing the savings to the customer.


Free shipping carries a lot more risk for the seller from my experience. I used to do free shipping on eBay until I got an order from a tiny U.S. island that cost me big time to send out. I’ve also had orders from non-shippable addresses that force me into much more expensive carriers. These days I always charge shipping from specific carriers now. You can cancel orders as an eBay seller for tricky situations but you get dinged on your account.


Alternatively, like Amazon did for many years, you can ‘reinvest your profits’ - aka subsidize shipping on behalf of investors.

VCs and many others did the same in Uber, UberEats, scooters, etc.

Then they stopped when the Fed started raising rates, as they expected (correctly) that expectations were changing and revenue now mattered more than expected future trajectory.


Difference is, Amazon did so while remaining profotable and, more importantly, cash flow positive. Operation free cash flow, a detail Uber at al forgot when they tried toncopy the Amazon model.


Notably, I don’t think they forgot.

It was an attempt at market dumping using investor cash in order to capture the market.

And it kinda worked. Taxi companies took a serious hit.

Now we’re seeing more realistic market prices, and investors are getting hit hard. Because they didn’t succeed at getting the monopoly they wanted.

That’s the larger picture, IMO.


I think I may have a business idea:

Instead of shipping items to each individual customer, what if we instead built locations that were stocked with items that customers are likely to buy. Then you can ship things by the truckload to the location.

And here is the kicker, you can have the customer come in and select and pay for items they want. This avoids having to do the last mile shopping of individual items to the customer. In addition, the customer can often get (common) items even faster than even next day shipping.

What does everyone think? Does this idea have some possibility?

Edge computing seems to be starting to get big. Maybe we can call it edge retail?


It was never really free shipping, it was built into the price. Consumers like to buy stuff for the price listed, and not see additional fees and charges at checkout.


I was surprised a few years ago to learn that in some parts of Europe, it's common to include the sales tax in the price on the shelf. That makes quite a lot of sense to me, but here in the states shelf prices are often just the sale price - taxes are only shown at checkout.


I never saw the tax not being included in Europe.

The only thing that is not shown up on the shelf is the deposit for beer & soda/water bottles that some countries have (usually around €0.10-0.20 that you get back when you return the bottle).


Taxes in the US are locality sensitive. The county sales tax rate varies by almost a full percentage between counties where I live, so depending on whether I ship something to my home or to the office, the amount of sales tax due is different.


I think it's also worth pointing out that the US doesn't have VAT. In Europe, VAT tax averages over 21%. And this increases even further if you have locally imposed taxes. This substantially impacts purchase price.

In the USA, all sales taxes on your item added together are usually just a few percent. (Higher in expensive cities though)


In the US there are thousands of overlapping and independent sales tax authorities. Each tax authority has their own complex sales tax rules with respect to what products they apply to and the rates. Each authority can change these on an arbitrary schedule. it isn't chaos but it is very messy.

As a consequence, the sales tax rules are extremely local and the combination of all separate tax authorities that have jurisdiction over a specific retail location. While it might be nice if the sales tax was built into the price, it is a continuously moving target and therefore is simpler to compute on demand rather than physically repricing things on the shelves.


> In the US there are thousands of overlapping and independent sales tax authorities. Each tax authority has their own complex sales tax rules with respect to what products they apply to and the rates. Each authority can change these on an arbitrary schedule.

Still, seems like the retailer is in a better position to handle that complexity than the consumer. Surely it's better to have the retailer advertise the post-tax price (and occasionally lose money if they wrote the price tag assuming one set of taxes, and determined a different one applied at checkout) than for the customer not to know whether the $30 item they are buying is $32 or $38. It's not even that important that the customer's receipt correctly itemizes the taxes - that's nice, but it matters more that the retailer pays the right amount to the tax collector at the end of the year.

Also, "thousands of overlapping sales tax authorities" overstates the complexity. A typical retail location (the level at which price tags are usually decided) deals with 0-3.


The customer's receipt absolutely does need to correctly itemize sales taxes. It is an input to the customer's own tax filings. And obviously, overstating the sales tax is illegal regardless.

Any sales tax decrease will not be transferred to the customer except in a delayed fashion under your model. Furthermore, requiring the retailer to eat any downside on sales tax changes will cause average prices to increase, albeit slightly in most cases, to transfer the risk to the customer as happens in every other market where operating costs are not directly chargeable.


> As a consequence, the sales tax rules are extremely local and the combination of all separate tax authorities that have jurisdiction over a specific retail location. While it might be nice if the sales tax was built into the price, it is a continuously moving target and therefore is simpler to compute on demand rather than physically repricing things on the shelves.

And don't forget, the whole Europe still can't solve that for the last 40 years!

Wait...

They did.

Now I listening for the list of excuses why this country can't do the thing the whole world did eons ago.


This is the law in NZ at least. When selling to consumers, you must include the GST in the displayed price. If selling to businesses, you can display the price excluding GST.


That would make a great The Onion article.


Yes, it was never really free shipping, it was built into the price...

... much like a retail store, where their overheads (e.g. the rent of the store) are also built into the price.


Was it general free shipping? Here in Germany, I’m used to certain € thresholds that trigger free shipping, depending on the margins and size of the business.

I’ve seen 100 €, but also as low as 20€ and anything in between.


The worst about free shipping and easy returns are merchants selling stuff as if it were new even though the packaging is clearly ripped apart.


https://archive.ph/xWq0o

This article is simping hard for businesses formerly doing the absolute bare minimum to make online shopping viable so they can get out of their expensive storefront leases now just increasing prices without having to say they're increasing prices. The mental gymnastics required to say that the cost of shipping and returns which we've been paying the whole time is something we've been getting undeservedly for free is appalling.

> But in a larger sense, the pushback from retailers is a good thing. Free shipping is not actually free. It involves massive, expensive logistics operations and often leaves small retailers at an impossible disadvantage compared with their much larger competitors. The too-easy shipping and returning process consumers have come to expect is harmful to the environment.

Oh gag me, free shipping and returns isn't free because corporate daddy is so generous, it's not free because it's baked into the price and consumers have signaled a massive preference for $x+y with free shipping over $x item with $y shipping.

Also there's no way in any universe that the cost of getting an item to me physically via my car and a physical storefront is better for the environment than the Amazon or FedEx truck taking what would have been hundreds of trips to the store and making one run for everyone. I don't have a massively efficient logistics network.

> They are charging to send stuff back, shortening return deadlines, and refusing to accept some items entirely. Retailers want to dissuade consumers from making returns at all — or at least force them to do it in a more profitable manner, like physically bringing stuff back to stores.

Why even bother with the charade? You don't have to offer returns at all and consumers understand that some items are non-returnable like sale items. Well because they need to say they allow returns or else folks won't buy. So you just rug pull by making it difficult while technically saying you still allow returns.


> Also there's no way in any universe that the cost of getting an item to me physically via my car and a physical storefront is better for the environment than the Amazon or FedEx truck taking what would have been hundreds of trips to the store and making one run for everyone. I don't have a massively efficient logistics network.

Maybe not. But what about walking to the store? And certainly minimizing the number of trips those delivery drivers make by consolidating items instead of doing next-day by default certainly helps.


If there were stores that were within walking distance I'm sure they would be used more. For a lot of us this isn't true. And often the prices will be higher and with a more restricted selection of items.

I think there's a lot of room for improvement here if we can make use of planning more. Consolidating deliveries, local production of goods, and better transportation infrastructure (for items and people)


I’m kind of over what Amazon has that passes for “selection.” It’s a lot of dropshipping crap from companies with names that are random, unpronounceable letters together making stuff of dubious quality. It’s tedious needing to scroll through a bunch of dross to find a commodity good, like a battery. And even worse when it’s not a pure commodity but I have no way of assessing what’s good or bad.

A good store ought to have good staff who can just assess your needs and sell you the specific thing you’re looking at. It’s just that Amazon came about at a time when brick and mortar retail had already cut to the bone and downskilled their staff (through low compensation, overbearing management, no career growth, and high turnover) to the point where nobody even has expectations of a good retail experience, but countries (and income brackets) where boutiques haven’t been driven out by a ruthless price cutting fixation still have them.


There is an overhead, including for the environment, to have the store though. Bringing returns to a post office is basically the same for the environment as bringing them to a store, but post office is dedicated to shipping and also multiplexed among multiple retailers and private custers.


No a centralized store is definitely going to be more efficient than needing that logistics train doing last mile delivery for each and every home. They get returns to scale doing so, as well as the fact that they get orders in bulk, meaning less packaging more space efficiencies.


No, I’m not a jerk for fulfilling my side of a consensual, legal commercial transaction. Why would I continue to read this piece when I’m immediately told I’m a jerk? What a garbage way to start an article.


TANSTAAFL!




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