This is all just part of the master plan. If/When Facebook implodes, there is already a place set up for everyone to go. Google has the staying power to weather a long lull in usership; there are other properties to support them. Facebook has 1 angle and history shows that to be a dangerous position--one bad decision can bring the whole thing crashing down a-la Digg.
I'm not saying Facebook is here to stay and has nothing to worry about, but Digg is a pretty poor comparison. What does it take for someone to switch news aggregators? Pretty much nothing. I just need to find another site that has links/discussion I find interesting.
What does it take for someone to switch to another social network? Actually quite a bit. One, I want my friends to be there too. That alone is pretty difficult, and a common complaint with G+.
But I think the real roadblock is probably photos. People love their photos. Can you imagine the work some people would have to do just to move that all to a new network? Some people I know have thousands of photos of themselves, and have posted thousands of photos. That is no small task. It helps keep people tied to Facebook, in my opinion.
Certainly I think Facebook could be usurped, but I don't think it's trivial and it is probably going to require some competitor finding a good way to help someone move their social life (i.e. photos and friends) trivially.
> it is probably going to require some competitor finding a good way to help someone move their social life (i.e. photos and friends) trivially
I wouldn't be surprised if the EU would introduce laws for that at one point. Also, it would be cool if a social news site could parse the ZIP dump of your data you can request from FB.
What I meant with the Digg comparison is an "implosion" scenario whereby Facebook does something disastrous to itself which causes a mass exodus, as opposed to something better coming along to supplant it.
I think it would be very difficult for it to happen any other way. Indeed, the points you make reinforce this idea.
This is all just part of the master plan. If/When Facebook implodes, there is already a place set up for everyone to go. Google has the staying power to weather a long lull in usership; there are other properties to support them. Facebook has 1 angle and history shows that to be a dangerous position--one bad decision can bring the whole thing crashing down a-la Digg.
I'm surprised no one seems to see this.