That will be very easy to verify. If emissions will peak and level or go down, then actual measurable CO2 level in the atmosphere will also become straight increasing line, with no acceleration of the increase. My bet is it will not do so in the next decade, because all this "emissions cut" talks is a greenwashing bs with fudged committee "designed" numbers, and actual real emissions are only ever increasing.
Seems plausible to me. Many of the largest emitter have peaked.
The USA is the number 2 emitter and peaked somewhere around 2007 and is currently down around 15%.
China is number 1, so a lot hinges on how quickly China gets off coal.
[edit] You could probably make an argument that CO2 emissions already peaked around 2016. The highest ever year over year CO2 gains was in 2016 at 3.03 ppm/yr. 2022 was "only" increasing at 1.81 ppm/yr.
I see your numbers and obviously I can't dispute them, coming from NOAA itself. But then I look at the measurements of actual CO2 level in the atmosphere at the same station which NOAA uses for those YOY calculations, and they don't match up, or at least I don't know how (most likely:) ). When I look at the graph of CO2 levels I see that if we plot the line across max peaks of 2021 and 2022 then peak 2023 measurement is higher (so the acceleration is positive). Same with min levels for the same years. If all measurements are higher in 2023, then how YOY can be lower? I don't get it.
I'll try to research more this topic.
3) Is the yearly CO2 change speeding up or slowing down.
This data and the article are about the third factor, which is tied to peak annual emissions. The analogy for a car would be:
1) location
2) speed (change in location)
3) acceleration/deceleration ( Is speed going up or down)
Based on the article, it possible that 2023 may be the first year that car isnt going faster than it was before. It is still traveling in the wrong direction.
this is GOOD NEWS. It does not mean that the problem is on track to fix itself. We are still increasing CO2 in the atmosphere every year, when we really want it to be going down.
Yes, you are correct. But regarding item 3, a derivative of the rate of CO2 level change, if the car is decelerating isn't the linear graph should become straight or start curving down? So lets say very roughly:
Graph y=x*2 is curving up, so rate of change is accelerating.
Graph y=const*x is linear and rate of change is constant.
Graph y=sqrt(x) is curving down, so rate change is decelerating.
In this case the graph curving up but YOY numbers tell us that it should curve down.
I've found daily numbers from Mauna Kea. If we take max and min levels for past years:
2023 - MAX=424.63, MIN=417.34
2022 - MAX=421.69, MIN=414.00
2021 - MAX=420.29, MIN=409.65
2020 - MAX=417.97, MIN=410.34
Admittedly it is not scientific measurement, but as a rough estimation it does look like 2022 to 2023 is higher than previous. And looking at the complete graph it is visible that the bulk of measures curves ever so slightly up, meaning positive acceleration of rate.
PS: I don't pretend to know more than data scientists of course. I'm just concerned that this emissions estimations are a perfect storm to produce misleading data. Because a) it is hard to estimate as an emissions, b) both pro-change and contra-change parties have financial incentive to produce numbers that show that emissions are lowering even if it is not a reality.
>Yes, you are correct. But regarding item 3, a derivative of the rate of CO2 level change, if the car is decelerating isn't the linear graph should become straight or start curving down? So lets say very roughly:
The car is holding speed or slightly slowing, but we are still getting further from home every day.
Constant co2 emission would make atmospheric levels look like straight line with a constant slope upwards.
Decreasing but positive Co2 emission would make atmospheric levels look like a line going up that gradually flattens out to a constant level.
It is only when you have negative acceleration that the atmospheric level line curves down. This would mean we are sucking more CO2 out than we are putting in. This would mean that the car is not only going slower, but we are now in reverse, and getting closer to home.
