I have experienced all of these things as well, it's not luck that changed it but time and effort. Except meetups, never seen a real friendship come out of those.

how much time? I was trying for 2 years pre-pandemic and then I've been trying to slowly ramp up this year. Sad part is I'm not sure if the 3 or so years I lost from the pandemic would have even made a difference.

I'm old and my oldest social ties go back decades now. I think it usually takes 2-5 years of consistent interaction for someone to transition from acquaintance to friend. Neighbors takes years and is just constantly pretty uncomfortable & awkward until eventually it isn't. People come and go too you just roll with it. Most of my closest friends now I didn't know ten years ago. Some of them I won't know in ten years. It's just like that.

At one point I went to a lot of tech meetups and I think they're cool for other reasons but not for forming meaningful relationships. The things that have been most fruitful in that are ones that bring people together for value-based reasons: religion, volunteering, organizing for a specific local cause or movement.

In between are activity-based things like book clubs, sports leagues or game groups. They are good for meeting people to hang out with but individuals in them tend to be transient and I haven't formed many deep friendships from them. Sometimes the line gets blurry though, like martial arts dojos & boxing gyms are activity-based but tend to form tight bonds.