I mean.. not indefinitely, but in a war of attrition, executives are much better positioned to weather the drought than writers. Apart from everything else, there is just so much content out there, re-running old stuff is a valid tactic until other steps are necessary.
I absolutely buy willingness to hold out. I have no way of telling the public sentiment on the issue though, which could be a factor.
For an idea of what things can be like for strikes in the entertainment industry, look at the 1942-1944 musicians' strike[1]. Yes that's a multi-year strike, not a series of strikes.
> in a war of attrition, executives are much better positioned to weather the drought than writers
Not necessarily. If the writers had pulled this in 2021, they'd have won. Everyone wanted to buy more content. That not only made the opportunity cost of not producing larger, it introduced the credible threat of writers picking off the studios one by one or even decamping to a new entrant.
> executives are much better positioned to weather the drought than writers.
Why? Due to the way Hollywood treats writers, they're already used to having periods of 6-10 months or so without any writing work.
> there is just so much content out there, re-running old stuff is a valid tactic until other steps are necessary.
But it doesn't raise the stock price. At best, it might keep it afloat for a while. Unlike the writers, the studio execs are expected to show growth on a regular basis.
And bear in mind that the studios have already been using "Your favorite shows won't have new episodes! Doesn't that make you want to force the writers to accept our utterly one-sided contract??" as a cudgel toward fans—so they think that "watching old content instead of demanding the new right away" is, at least to some extent, not in their best interests.
<< Why? Due to the way Hollywood treats writers, they're already used to having periods of 6-10 months or so without any writing work.
My apologies. I assumed it was clear from my post. Executives have more money to burn through. They also do not automatically lose money, when writer don't work ( streaming services bring in steady flow as long as you have a decent library ). Who knows? Maybe this will force streaming services to share the digital library in an effort to outmaneuver writers ( one giant library of oldies to draw from ). Seems unlikely, but it all depends on how hell bent executives really are.
Now compare that situation to that of writers. It does not look as promising.
<< Unlike the writers, the studio execs are expected to show growth on a regular basis.
Eh. Execs have to mollify investors and investors are not unlikely to support 'heavy negotiation tactics'. As such, I am not sure if they have to worry about 2023.
FWIW, I may very well be wrong. I am a sucker for a David vs Goliath story, but the deck is heavily stacked against writers.
Studios don't want to shoot shows now, but they had to due to pre-existing contracts. Now they don't have to due to the strike. They simply cite force majeure.
We're in this perfect storm of circumstances where the WGA strike is PROFITABLE for the studios, and not only they're not motivated to negotiate, they're motivated for this strike to go on for the rest of the year at least.
The studios are not bluffing. They're comfortable right now. Do you know who's bluffing: WGA's Adam Conover. He said "we're in it for the long haul and we'll support all our members who need to pay rent and mortgage with our strike fund". Source: https://twitter.com/adamconover/status/1679296015378030596
Let me tell you something. WGA's strike fund is $20 million. They have 20 thousand members. That's... $1000 per member.
That's not enough to cover all their members for "the long haul". It's a joke, and they'll fail.
Well, it makes no sense until you dig into the recent history of the industry.
- First we had Netflix rent DVD's over the mail.
- Then video on demand started displacing them, so they were focusing more on directly delivering content over the Internet, as the Internet was becoming fast enough for this, and they were installing caching servers at major ISPs to reduce their complaints on wasted bandwidth.
- Other studios saw Netflix may become a huge monopolistic platform for distributing content, that'll replace to a large degree other networks, so they created Hulu, then HBO GO (then HBO MAX, now MAX), Amazon made theirs, Disney made their, everyone was in on streaming wars.
- In these wars, exclusivity was one of the most important weapons. HBO have always had their own content, so now Netflix and others felt like they need to have theirs. Exclusive to them.
- So everyone started shooting shows, to fill out their library of exclusive content. Movies, series, from bargain basement B movies to top notch blockbusters, even Scorsese made movies for streaming.
- In the aftermath of COVID, everyone saw cooling down of home entertainment demand, and inflation also further cut into their userbase and revenue stream. But they had no choice, they had to keep making content, because everyone was making content and no one wanted to be left behind.
- Eventually they were starting to cozy up to the idea of "cease fire" where all the major stream vendors will slow down production or otherwise they'd all lose even more money. But there was no way to do this. How do you slow down production evenly? How do you measure it? How do you verify it? Who is first? On top of that existing long-term contracts on shows meant they had to keep production running out of legal obligation.
- Enter the WGA strike. A forced cease fire on all streamers to stop production. Force majeure means you can pause or cancel contracts. Blessing in disguise.
They don't want to shoot shows now. They want that strike. And this is why while writers have some fair demands (and some frankly absurd ones), they won't get what they want. Writers are screwed.
Well, they have the money to do it. There's so much free content around that a lack of new stuff coming down the pipe is not that big of a financial hurt for them.
Hollywood execs would claim they'll hold out indefinitely, if they thought anyone would remotely believe their claim.