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Best metric I can think of is Revenue on the ChatGpt api. Not sure if that will be public though. Maybe some vague public number? Could bet on over or under $50M/yr, $1B/yr?

Prize could be an A100 or whatever replaces it in 2 years.

Also if your friend is willing to "bet their career on it" there is actually a place where they can literally do that, by applying to OpenAI.



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