The second link shows that natural gas increases steadily for exporting and for domestic industrial consumption. If you click the Excel link under the table graphics [1], it shows that natural gas consumption for generating electricity remains below 2020 demand levels until 2047. As for why they think that demand will pick up in the late 2040s after decades of stagnation, I'm not sure; maybe it's projections of population growth finally overcoming trends in fuel efficiency.
I will note that the EIA has badly underestimated renewable electricity growth in the past. Their projections are very restrained, far from "optimistic industry projections." You can read a retrospective on their past forecasting here:
In particular look at the electricity section of the table, "Comparison of AEO Reference case projections with realized outcomes, 1994–2021." The EIA underestimated future usage of solar power 80% of the time and future usage of wind power 84% of the time. The magnitude of the underestimates was actually worse for solar power, though.
It's also vastly underestimated growth in natural gas energy generation. By that reasoning, we can only assume that the 21st century will continue to be a century of fossil fuels.
I will note that the EIA has badly underestimated renewable electricity growth in the past. Their projections are very restrained, far from "optimistic industry projections." You can read a retrospective on their past forecasting here:
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/retrospective/
In particular look at the electricity section of the table, "Comparison of AEO Reference case projections with realized outcomes, 1994–2021." The EIA underestimated future usage of solar power 80% of the time and future usage of wind power 84% of the time. The magnitude of the underestimates was actually worse for solar power, though.
[1] https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/production/excel/subtopic3_...