> Everyone faces different risks: inflation, extreme weather, mortgage rates
Even as a relatively sophisticated investor (compared to the median) I wouldn't really know how to hedge correctly on these markets.
For example if inflation is high, how many units do I buy. Am I fully hedged, or can I lose the bet AND lose in real life?
I think users need to understand these things to use it. Some of that is education, and some will be tools.
For example, enter your salary, expenses, budget etc, and it recommends a bet, and then shows you the outcomes if you win or lose.
It should be clear that for example YOUR cost of living might go up more than inflation because you buy different things from the inflation basket.
This is a bit like insurance, in the sense you may pay for health insurance, or travel insurance then find your thing isn't covered.
I would also be interested in the tax implications. For example you do a bet to hedge your foreign holdings of say GBP. GBP goes down so you win from the bet and lose in real life. But you still pay tax on the bet (or do you ... ?).
I think this is a cool idea.
I think the more useful idea for the everyday person is something akin to a "1kg of tomatos a week prepaid subscription for 5 years" aggregated over their typical shopping.
That all said trying to tame the future is a hard beast. And expensive to insure yourself against all the things. Especially likely things, like shit getting more expensive!
Even as a relatively sophisticated investor (compared to the median) I wouldn't really know how to hedge correctly on these markets.
For example if inflation is high, how many units do I buy. Am I fully hedged, or can I lose the bet AND lose in real life?
I think users need to understand these things to use it. Some of that is education, and some will be tools.
For example, enter your salary, expenses, budget etc, and it recommends a bet, and then shows you the outcomes if you win or lose.
It should be clear that for example YOUR cost of living might go up more than inflation because you buy different things from the inflation basket.
This is a bit like insurance, in the sense you may pay for health insurance, or travel insurance then find your thing isn't covered.
I would also be interested in the tax implications. For example you do a bet to hedge your foreign holdings of say GBP. GBP goes down so you win from the bet and lose in real life. But you still pay tax on the bet (or do you ... ?).
I think this is a cool idea.
I think the more useful idea for the everyday person is something akin to a "1kg of tomatos a week prepaid subscription for 5 years" aggregated over their typical shopping.
That all said trying to tame the future is a hard beast. And expensive to insure yourself against all the things. Especially likely things, like shit getting more expensive!