It will break earlier because unix time isn't only a display format. Tons of calculation are scheduling things into the future. But if the future ends up being in the past? Then you will have problem now. Starting from things with 10 year cycle, 5 year, yearly, monthly, daily. The more nearer to 2038, the more things explodes.
Definitely. I was charged with fixing Y2K problems at a hospital in the late 90ies. The software scheduling checkups for pregnant women was first, because it had the estimated birth date, i.e. up to 9 months ahead.
