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When dealing with unknown unknowns any theory can be logical.

Maybe extra-terrestrials are more like lumberjacks chopping down trees. Except these lumber jacks avoid *any tree with a bird's nest in it*. Then, we should be as visible as possible.

So should we be quiet (ala Dark Forest), or loud? Depends on how you model extra-terrestrials.



Isn't some sort of game theory going to suggest we be quiet then? Because if they exterminate birds nests, we want to be quiet, and if they intentionally avoid bird's nests, they probably will look for them closer before chopping us down.


Hmm, so I am not sure I see why that would be more likely. It sounds like you're saying that exterminators are less effective at detection than lumberjacks--whether by effort or some other reason.

I think you could just as logically conclude the opposite: maybe lumberjacks don't need to exterminate to survive, so they do not put as much effort in, since they are just avoiding us altruistically.

But more generally, this is the sort of problem I have with speculation on unknown unknowns: It's fun to do, but I dont recommend changing any of our decisions based on it because we simply do not know.




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