It is almost a given that he wouldn't have. He had squeezed through on the technicalities of the electoral college (not unlike Trump), significantly losing the popular vote (also considering that the hard-left Nader had his best result ever, attracting 3m votes and forever discrediting the wisdom of voting for a third-party candidate). GWB's ratings pre-9/11 were consistently low almost from the start. He set up a cabinet of old-school industrialist cronies, led by Dick Cheney, focused largely on exploiting energy markets and neutering antitrust laws, and substantially expanded the doctrine on executive privilege to block laws he didn't like or hide Cheney's shenanigans.

Then 9/11 happened, he made the best of the photo ops, and then rode a wave of proto-fascism all the way to Katrina.