It's pretty easy to ignore what you read on the web when it doesn't fit your preconceptions.

Yes, and to everyone who now claims he was really sure of the bubble back then: why didn't you make a fortune in short selling?

Shorting is generally a bad idea because even if you're right, if your timing is wrong, you can still lose everything. Say that you call "overvalued" and short the market. You're right, but the market gets more overvalued before it corrects. You can get short-squeezed out of your positions because with the new, bubble-inflated prices, you don't meet margin requirements. Then the market corrects, you're vindicated, but you've lost everything already.

Same goes for buying on margin when the market undershoots. You can be right, but if the price continues to drop past rationality (as it often does), you can lose everything.

And I did make a pretty good return, both in 2001 and 2007, simply by holding money in cash when people were greedy and investing when they were fearful. Not a fortune (I was a poor college student in 01/02, and only had 2 years of accumulated work savings in 07), but enough to fund my year-long startup adventure, and to fund a few more years of it if I had a decent idea.

Yes, timing is a problem. The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.

Good luck with your ventures!

Because even if you know (in general) what is going to happen, it is quite hard to time it. Plus I think you need balls of steel in certain situations (everyone telling you are wrong).