Not under control of any government on earth? It's not 2200 yet. Your entire colony will be dependent on earth for the rest of your lifetime. If we had evidence of nitrogen in martian soil and we had already sent machines that increase atmospheric pressure on the planet then you might be justified in thinking that it's just a matter of time. As it is right now you would have to live in an earth sponsored underground shelter and die in there. By defying earth you would just die sooner.

Instead, you'll have the pleasure of living under what amounts to a ubiquitous-surveillance dictatorship.

What, you think surviving under those conditions will work like a Heinlein novel?

What makes you think Mars would be like that more than Earth? Mars colonists can simply turn the cameras off when they want.

Your sponsors can also just stop supporting you when they want. An uprising on Mars can be struck down by waiting for everyone on mars to die.

Indeed! Instead, you’d get to live under a much smaller, less experienced, and more resource-starved government —- possibly a corporatocracy. Yay!

Control needs a basis from which to operate. I doubt there will be much of one on Mars initially. It would most likely be a direct democracy just because of the reality on the ground.