They may feel like they were able to differentiate, but without an actual explanation of how they differentiated, we can’t determine whether they differentiated or whether they got lucky.

> a small minority were able to differentiate and it paid off very well for them

True. But from a policy perspective this punts the problem. Ex ante, identifying the president from the deluded is difficult.

> identifying the president from the deluded

I'm guessing you might have meant "prescient" there?

Then again, perhaps not.