> assuming Moore's Law held, we would be doubling computing power every two years
So the correct realisation here is that Moore's law (an observation by an engineer) doesn't trump laws of physics.
The transistors Moore was talking about have to be made from something. When they're made of a lump of material you can actually see under a microscope this feels both very real and as if it could be shrunk indefinitely. Just keep cutting that material in half!
But it can't. Matter is made of atoms. If you double the number of transistors you must halve the number of atoms in each transistor. Today's transistors have a few hundred atoms in them. Guess what happens when there's one atom in each transistor and you try to halve that? There's no such thing as "half" an atom, what you've got there isn't an atom any more, and so what you're making isn't a transistor.
The argument that we will never need larger symmetric encryption isn't based on ignorance of Moore's law, it's based on knowledge of the laws of physics. You can't make a 256-bit AES cracker by "just" converting the entire planet into Computronium, that's not enough compute power.
So the correct realisation here is that Moore's law (an observation by an engineer) doesn't trump laws of physics.
The transistors Moore was talking about have to be made from something. When they're made of a lump of material you can actually see under a microscope this feels both very real and as if it could be shrunk indefinitely. Just keep cutting that material in half!
But it can't. Matter is made of atoms. If you double the number of transistors you must halve the number of atoms in each transistor. Today's transistors have a few hundred atoms in them. Guess what happens when there's one atom in each transistor and you try to halve that? There's no such thing as "half" an atom, what you've got there isn't an atom any more, and so what you're making isn't a transistor.
The argument that we will never need larger symmetric encryption isn't based on ignorance of Moore's law, it's based on knowledge of the laws of physics. You can't make a 256-bit AES cracker by "just" converting the entire planet into Computronium, that's not enough compute power.