I don't know how you can predict the future like this. Yes, intel greedily choose not to participate in the phone soc market and are paying the price.
But their choice not to invest in EUV early doesn't mean that they will never catch up. They still have plenty of cash, and presumably if they woke up and decided to, they wouldn't be any worse off than Samsung. And definitely better off than SMIC.
Similarly, plenty of smart microarch people work at intel, freeing them to create a design competitive with zen3 or the m1 is entirely possible. Given amd is still on 7nm, and are just a couple percent off of the M1 seems to indicate that if nothing else intel could be there too.
But as you point out Intel's failings are 100% bad mgmt at this point. Its hard to believe they can't hire or unleash whats needed to move themselves forward. But at the moment they seem to be very "IBM" in their moves, but one has to believe that a good CEO with a good engineering background can cut the mgmt bullcrap and get back to basics. They fundamentally just have a single product to worry about unlike IBM.
But their choice not to invest in EUV early doesn't mean that they will never catch up. They still have plenty of cash, and presumably if they woke up and decided to, they wouldn't be any worse off than Samsung. And definitely better off than SMIC.
Similarly, plenty of smart microarch people work at intel, freeing them to create a design competitive with zen3 or the m1 is entirely possible. Given amd is still on 7nm, and are just a couple percent off of the M1 seems to indicate that if nothing else intel could be there too.
But as you point out Intel's failings are 100% bad mgmt at this point. Its hard to believe they can't hire or unleash whats needed to move themselves forward. But at the moment they seem to be very "IBM" in their moves, but one has to believe that a good CEO with a good engineering background can cut the mgmt bullcrap and get back to basics. They fundamentally just have a single product to worry about unlike IBM.