- We're one of the first nearby and we're going to help build a filter
The various AI we give birth to over the next two centuries are going to dominate several galaxies. There are many filters - competing standards - throughout the universe, our galaxy doesn't yet have one. Humans will cease to exist as we think of them now, within those two centuries (and not due to climate change or any other similar event).
that said, the likelihood of there being _no_ filter is still lower than the others.
if we detect life so near to us and _yet_ we still have yet to encounter life from another planet means there's likely still _some_ kind of filter. So I don't think the likelihood of no filter is high if we detect life
Rather then apocaliptyical filter, the most probable reason is that space is so wast that even if advanced life was common, chance of meeting/observing one would be next to 0. Think about our civ living on a sand grain in the desert - the chance is almost 0 to encounter another civ living on sand grain on random desert location no matter how advanced your tech is.
yikes - that's true, we could still move life beyond earth and still never meet another civ. I didn't realize this at first but I was conflating the two
- The filter is ahead us
- There is no filter
- The filter is behind us, but ahead of the other planet
- Both planets have successfully got past the filter
We'll still be debating :). Then we'll go crazy trying find evidence of life in more planets.