Any exponential close to 1 looks linear for relatively long periods of time. That doesn't mean that if you "open up" the economy it will stay that way. Unfortunately, the heavily delayed hospitalizations and deaths are the only direct measures, while sampling rates/biases make even statistical analysis of positive tests for infection rates difficult.

However, rising %positive and higher reported rates together or rapidly rising hospitalizations (eg. rising even 5-10% per day) are indications that by the time any new (present day) controls have effect on measured outcome (20-30 day delay) the situation will be 5-10x worse.