It'll be more like "you need to use this app to manage your government account - look it's easy!" marketing and lack of investment in other methods of accessing government services.

Eventually you'll be unable to function without the app and the smartphone and be left with no choice.

This is already happening in the UK as a lot of services are fairly difficult to use if you don't go via https://gov.uk.

gov.uk actually has very reasonable UX guidelines:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/government-design-principles

The people who most need our services are often the people who find them hardest to use. Let’s think about those people from the start.