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Uber Bookings Now Down 80% (theinformation.com)
42 points by uptown on April 21, 2020 | hide | past | favorite | 38 comments


Does this mean Uber will lose less money than it did in previous quarters?


I’ve spent $1700 on uber eats since this covid thing started.

Restaurants need help and drivers do too. I would normally think this amount of money for 6 weeks of food is nuts but I’m glad I can help.

Keeping the economy going as much as possible is really important, IMO.


The crazy thing about Uber Eats is that it takes a 30% cut of food item price, and on top of that they add the "service fee" and delivery charge, so very often restaurants had to raise their price significantly on Uber Eats vs. their actual menu.

In fact, that 30% fee applies even for in-restaurant pick up, which is plain ridiculous.


A paltry sum to not have talk to another fellow human on the phone.

/S


You're sarcastic, but I think the current model of ordering is great. No risk of having to dial in 4 times and only get busy signals, no waiting on hold, no shouting over the sounds of people eating, no issues with accents or distracted hosts, etc.

One less conversation means I can focus on the conversations I do want to have.


Are you not concerned about kitchen staff acting as vectors? Honest question.


There is no hard evidence that COVID-19 is transmitted on food. Furthermore, restaurants in developed countries have to follow rigorous health and safety practices when preparing and distributing food. Those practices, which include hand washing, reduce the risk of virus transmission even further. Keep in mind that the transmission of disease via food is something that health authorities have been tackling for decades.


>Furthermore, restaurants in developed countries have to follow rigorous health and safety practices when preparing and distributing food.

All the incentives say that restaurant workers must prioritize speed and "customer satisfaction" over cleanliness. As much as restaurant managers and owners would like things to be up to standard, it's typically not worth it to them if taking even one minute longer than usual causes a customer to complain to them. Customers give you shit when you're 2 minutes late, but they'll never notice or care that you took 2 minutes because you were washing your hands or cleaning the workstation.

This is what decades of "the customer is always right" has done to people. People need to change, so that the incentives change. I'm very happy to wait an extra 5 minutes if it means workers have time to breathe and wash their damn hands like they're supposed to. But if Karen doesn't get her McDongles 2 minutes faster, she's gonna need to speak to the manager and get some poor worker fired.


>Furthermore, restaurants in developed countries have to follow rigorous health and safety practices when preparing and distributing food.

The existence of the laws, and the actuality of most commercial kitchens, would likely surprise a lot of people who haven't worked in food service.


> There is no hard evidence that COVID-19 is transmitted on food.

There are preliminary reports that it does. [1,2,3,4,5]

But beyond this, the coronavirus family has a well-known fecal-oral route. [5,7]

It's astonishing to think that fomites coming into contact with mucosa wouldn't pose a threat. [8]

Edit: More sources added.

- - - - -

[1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32065057/

> It was believed that 2019-nCoV was transmitted through respiratory tract and then induced pneumonia [...] However, many coronaviruses can also be transmitted through oral-fecal route by infecting intestines. [...] Our report provides a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be shed through multiple routes.

[2] https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-03/aga-gsa03052...

These pre-prints state and recommend:

* Viral RNA is detectable in stool of patients with suspected coronavirus; it is now clear that the virus sheds into the stool.

* Viral gastrointestinal infection and potential fecal-oral transmission can last even after viral clearance in respiratory tract.

* Prevention of fecal-oral transmission should be taken into consideration to control the spread the virus.

[3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7074995/

[4] https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85315

[5] https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/studies-...

[6] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23681671/

> [...] zoonotic viruses such as respiratory coronaviruses and influenza viruses may potentially be transmitted via contaminated foods. [...] Nevertheless, these respiratory viruses were able to survive for at least several days on produce. There is therefore the potential for transfer to the hands and subsequently to the mucosa via rubbing the eyes or nose. In addition, some respiratory coronaviruses (e.g., severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus) and adenoviruses are also capable of replication in the gut and there is thus some potential for acquisition through the consumption of contaminated produce.

[7] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15654797/

> In addition to the lungs, the gastrointestinal tract is another target of SARS-CoV infection, as the intestinal epithelial cells and mucosal lymphoid tissue are infected. The findings provide possible explanations for the gastrointestinal symptoms and the presence of virus in the stool of SARS patients.

[8] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32088598/

> The mode of transmission may become clearer in future: usually in outbreak investigations, hindsight is easy [...]


Isn’t one of the theorized initial vectors people in China eating bat or pangolin?


Yes.


Fortunately it seems prepared food is low risk.

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/4/10/21216586/coronavirus...


I don't really have food delivery options where I live. I mostly cook a lot anyway so I haven't been getting a lot of takeout (or which there also aren't a lot of great options even if I pick up myself). I do get a pizza or something like that every now and then.

But I might be inclined to skip cold cuts like Italian subs, sushi, salads, etc. I don't think the risk is really all that great in the scheme of things. But I live somewhere that I can totally avoid person to person contact unless I go to the store--which I've been doing about once a week in off hours--so I'm not inclined to increase risk for trivial reasons.


as in, the are sneezing/coughing on your food? if so, that would be a vector for a LOT other diseases and i would hope that restaurants are more careful than that.

re: packaging? here, we are cleaning everything we get, but, at the same time, WHO said[0] that there are no cases of COVID-19 being transmitted through food or food packaging.

(we have spent something like ~1000 USD in delivery food since this all started, mostly on local restaurants since they are the ones that are suffering the most)

[0] https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1251401883660554240


Not the parent, but when I've had food delivered I reheat it in a new container. That + disposing of original packaging, afaik, mostly mitigates any risk of transmission which for this particular vector is low to begin with.

I havent ordered many fresh salads or sushi.


It is a good instinct to be concerned about this. But far as anyone can tell data, food has not acted as a transmission vector in any statistically detectable number of cases. The numbers don't show it, and the detailed disease transmission studies rule it out.

Here's a some high-level coverage of a lot of the obvious questions: https://www.news4jax.com/health/2020/03/31/answering-common-...

If you prefer podcasts, this episode of Food Safety Talk covers it pretty well, too: http://foodsafetytalk.com/food-safety-talk/2020/3/18/food-sa...


There's no evidence so that that it's transmitted via food.


Working together in the kitchen, I assume the comment above means.


I have zero concern of this.


I've heard Uber Eats has much higher margin anyways, and many restaurants (the ones that haven't closed down anyways) are still shipping via Uber Eats among other delivery apps.

I'd love to hear more about how Uber Eats might work with restaurants and delivery staff to have an accepted sanitary and packaging standard, esp. with food like salads or burritos. Going the extra mile w.r.t. assuring consumer confidence might keep both consumer burn and churn lower.


I'm in NYC where the vast majority of restaurants can do deliveries themselves. I've just been ordering from the restaurants directly so that they don't have to deal with the cut and charges Uber Eats imposes on them. I do feel bad that drivers for services like Uber Eats don't get business as a result of this but I'd prefer the restaurants stay in business. At least the restaurant workers are supposed to be paid minimum wage.


Uber driver in San Francisco here.

Yeah, down 80% seems accurate. The last several weeks have been better than the initial start of Quarantine. There were entire days where I did not give a single ride.

The airport lot used to have 250-300 cars waiting. Now there are around 10. The only place I have found any consistency is waiting at the local Safeway. I’ve gone from 12 hrs driving = $250 to 12 hours driving = $125.

It will be better soon.


This seems in line with the March 19th investor call: https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/19/21186865/uber-rides-decli...


From that article:

> Khosrowshahi said the company modeled “an extreme edge case” in which trip volume plummeted 80 percent.

We are now in "extreme edge case" territory.


@dang Any reason this post vanished from the front-page? Seemed to be relatively active and not all that stale at 21 minutes at the time of this comment.


Does HN have an @ functionality? I wasn't aware that there was.


Likely due to the paywall.


That is to be expected. Uber makes what little it does on Uber Eats. Lyft probably doesn't even make that. Same with Airbnb, they are probably making 0 right now.


Non-paywall link: https://archive.vn/xj2db


So how is this going to play out? Negative pricing like in oil?


No?

The oil situation is happening because producers are contractually obligated to pump (significantly) more oil than there is market demand for and it is hard to store or ramp down production of oil.

Uber rides have none of those qualities. If people stop riding Uber the producers (drivers) will just stop driving. The price may drop, but there's no prepayment and no driver will accept a negative fare.


Not just the contractual obligations, but it takes a long time to restart an oil supply chain so you just can't turn it off easily.


Negative pricing will not work in passenger transportation. Even zero pricing would result in overcrowding.


Are you saying that pricing drives demand? It seems to me that demand is driven by people who have places to go. Pricing can reduce demand, but it can't increase it beyond the base amount. Not unless people start just telling their uber driver to go around the city because they just like being inside of a car.


It can, even to the point of inability to serve passengers demanding for an actual need. There are situations people taking public transport just because it is free and they have time. I mean, if there were a free taxi, I can hail it and pick my friends and acquittances randomly into it and drop them at random places.


Funny, that was their strategy pre-IPO


What would be the point of negative pricing?




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