"First, a bunch of generic smart people on Twitter who got things exactly right"
I think it is far too early to declare anyone "exactly right". We won't know for months, maybe years; maybe we will never know because it will be impossible to disentangle the effects of the virus and the response. The more fundamental problem, in my view, is tunnel-vision on the epidemiological models. The epidemiological models represent, or should represent, input into a higher-level model that we might call the covid overall impact model. Such a model would take into account second and third order effects, it would include not just the virus but also the effects produced by the response. It would factor in economic, political, psychological, non-covid health, and broad societal effects. This is the model and perspective that really matters.
I think it is far too early to declare anyone "exactly right". We won't know for months, maybe years; maybe we will never know because it will be impossible to disentangle the effects of the virus and the response. The more fundamental problem, in my view, is tunnel-vision on the epidemiological models. The epidemiological models represent, or should represent, input into a higher-level model that we might call the covid overall impact model. Such a model would take into account second and third order effects, it would include not just the virus but also the effects produced by the response. It would factor in economic, political, psychological, non-covid health, and broad societal effects. This is the model and perspective that really matters.